What move does the options market price into CSX's report?

Implied ±9.8%, either direction · provisional.

How often does CSX move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CSXNasdaqRailroads, Line-Haul Operating

CSX Corp (CSX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

52.10

+1.38 · +2.72%

post 52.10 0.00%

Closed19:45 ET

Open50.61Volume12.0MMkt cap$93.5BP/E26.99EPS1.93Div yield1.08%

Day50.47 – 52.1498%52-wk33.20 – 53.4593%

CSX

CSX Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.8%implied · straddle

46.9757.13

spot 52.05exp Feb 19ATM strike 52.5ATM straddle 5.98IV 27%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 21

after close · in 78 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+6.76%

vs ±4.0% implied · ×1.69

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

4hTTAM · customerTitan America posts Q3 revenue $461.6 million, net income $39.8 million, adjusted EBITDA $95.0 million
5dSNDR · customerSchneider National reports Q3 revenue $1,585.3 million, net income $49.5 million
71dAMR · customerAlpha Metallurgical Resources Director Courtis Buys Again, This Time $3.2 Million in Shares. Is it Time for Investors to Buy Too?

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.74%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,998 managers

Top fund weight

1.53%

CSX weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

CSX (CSX) is expected to report on Jan 21 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.6%
avg realized: ±3.5%

Jan 23 '25Jan 23 '25confirmed±3.4%▼−2.91%×0.85

Apr 16 '25Apr 16 '25confirmed±2.8%▲+1.21%×0.44

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±2.3%▲+0.09%×0.04

Oct 16 '25Oct 16 '25confirmed±5.0%▲+1.69%×0.34

Jan 22 '26Jan 22 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+2.40%×0.63

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±3.5%▲+6.95%×1.99

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+5.77%×1.51

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed±4.0%▲+6.76%×1.69

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±4.0%▲+6.76%×1.69

Q2 FY26±3.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.62OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

1,123+4%Nov 62d0.0342,574+1964%0.03

299+38%Nov 139d0.59503+8%0.59

8,8990%Nov 2016d0.6713,363+1%0.67

516+1%Nov 2723d0.746950%0.74

2000%Dec 430d0.50397+17%0.50

56+2%Dec 1137d0.35158+204%0.35

11,994+1%Dec 1844d0.6518,5380%0.65

40,6880%Jan 1572d1.4228,5750%1.42

report · Jan 21 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 62d1,123+4%42,574+1964%0.03

Nov 139d299+38%503+8%0.59

Nov 2016d8,8990%13,363

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.8%

Funds 4

XLI±0.1%

VIG±0.0%

QQQ±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Customers 1

TTAM±6.6%×0.67

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 419dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

26.19%as filednet margin · revenue +2.08% QoQ · +11.99% YoY

Revenue

$4.0B+2.08% QoQ

Gross profit

$3.5B+2.42% QoQ

86.48% margin

Operating income

$1.6B+4.25% QoQ

39.08% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+4.85% QoQ

Net income

$1.1B+4.99% QoQ

26.19% margin

Cost of revenue

$543M0.00% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.9B+0.95% QoQ

SG&A $1.5B

Depreciation $413M

Other expense

$186M

Tax

$332M+4.40% QoQ

Revenue$4.0B+2.08%

Gross profit

$3.5B+2.42%

86.48% margin

Operating income

$1.6B+4.25%

39.08% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.4B+4.85%

Net income

$1.1B+4.99%

26.19% margin

Cost of revenue

$543M0.00%

Operating expenses

$1.9B+0.95%

SG&A $1.5B

Depreciation $413M

Other expense

$186M

Tax$332M+4.40%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.25· ±1.3% vs ±1.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.3%6 of 10×1.25

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%13 of 19×1.08

FOMCrate decision±1.1%9 of 24×1.05

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%8 of 12×0.93

PPIproducer prices±0.9%6 of 10×0.90

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%12 of 19×0.82

CPIconsumer prices±0.7%5 of 10×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.57 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	0.57	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	0.54	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	0.43	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod