What move does the options market price into Circle Internet's report?

Implied ±9.0%, either direction.

CRCLNYSEFinance Services

Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

72.08

−0.46 · −0.64%

post 72.22 +0.20%

After hours18:14 ETdelayed

Open75.09Volume16.3MMkt cap$19.5BP/E43.18

Day71.95 – 75.099%52-wk49.90 – 140.0025%

CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.0%implied · report alone

65.5678.60

straddle ±12.5%

spot 72.08exp Nov 13ATM strike 72ATM straddle 10.57IV 106%

Nov 2 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 11

before open · in 9 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.05%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

10hCOIN · supplierCoinbase has been battered over the past month. Morgan Stanley says steer clear
12dBLK · supplierBlackRock's Rick Rieder sees 'historic' opportunity in high-quality bonds

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.19%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

571 managers

Top fund weight

3.90%

CRCL weight · ARKK

N-PORTJul 31 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Circle Internet (CRCL) is expected to report on Nov 11 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed—▲+0.05%—

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q2 FY26—▲+0.05%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.63OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

18,633+56%Nov 64d1.0118,443+80%1.01

report · Nov 11 · before open · est.

5,652+21%Nov 1311d8,960+21%

29,687+6%Nov 2018d0.7241,242+2%0.72

4,289+201%Nov 2725d1.672,571+170%1.67

6 later expiries

178—Dec 432d1.53116—1.53

124—Dec 1139d7.7516—7.75

63,0910%Dec 1846d0.9764,775+4%0.97

60,562−1%Jan 1574d0.6692,140+1%0.66

17,382+4%Mar 19137d0.5929,370+5%0.59

11,646+6%Apr 16165d1.467,964+3%1.46

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 64d18,633+56%18,443+80%1.01

report · Nov 11 · before open · est.

Nov 1311d5,652+21%8,960+21%0.63

Nov 2018d29,687+6%41,242+2%0.72

Nov 2725d4,289+201%2,571+170%1.67

6 later expiries

Dec 432d178—116—1.53

Dec 1139d124—16—7.75

Dec 1846d63,0910%64,775+4%0.97

Jan 1574d60,562−1%92,140+1%0.66

Mar 19137d17,382+4%29,370+5%0.59

Apr 16165d11,646+6%7,964+3%1.46

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.5%

Funds 3

ARKK±0.5%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

6.88%as filednet margin · revenue +1.03% QoQ · +6.57% YoY

Revenue

$701M+1.03% QoQ

Gross profit

$565M+1.92% QoQ

80.60% margin

Operating income

$34M−23.65% QoQ

4.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$52M−7.73% QoQ

Net income

$48M−12.73% QoQ

6.88% margin

Cost of revenue

$136M−2.47% QoQ

Operating expenses

$531M+4.17% QoQ

Other operating $426M

SG&A $66M

Depreciation $30M

Other operating $9M

Tax

$4M+184.36% QoQ

Other income

$18M+53.62% QoQ

Revenue$701M+1.03%

Gross profit

$565M+1.92%

80.60% margin

Operating income

$34M−23.65%

4.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$52M−7.73%

Net income

$48M−12.73%

6.88% margin

Cost of revenue

$136M−2.47%

Operating expenses

$531M+4.17%

Other operating $426M

SG&A $66M

Depreciation $30M

Other income$18M+53.62%

Tax$4M+184.36%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.18· ±5.8% vs ±4.9% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±5.8%6 of 11×1.18

CPROFcorporate profits±4.5%3 of 10×0.92

NFPjobs report±4.3%5 of 10×0.87

PPIproducer prices±3.8%7 of 10×0.78

GDPgross domestic product±3.7%7 of 14×0.76

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.6%6 of 14×0.74

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%7 of 10×0.54

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±4.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.18 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.18	—
Q1 FY26	—	0.21	—
Q3 FY25	—	0.64	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod