What move does the options market price into Costco Wholesale's report?

Implied ±2.8%, either direction.

How often does Costco Wholesale move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

COSTNasdaqRetail-Variety Stores

Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

1,049.62

pre 1,067.03 +1.96%

Pre-market07:49 ETdelayed

Open1,054.98Volume2.6MMkt cap$463.7BP/E51.35EPS20.78Div yield0.55%

Day1,054.51 – 1,068.5889%52-wk839.11 – 1,093.1490%

COST

Costco Wholesale Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.6%·×1.10·fair

1,016.821,076.12

straddle ±5.3%

spot 1,046.47exp Dec 11ATM strike 1045ATM straddle 65.35IV 25%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 10

after close · in 35 days

est.Q1 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.93%

vs ±2.5% implied · ×1.16

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 24 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

11.00%

of Lifetime Brands revenue

supplierLCUT 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.07%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

4,252 managers

Top fund weight

9.03%

COST weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Costco Wholesale (COST) is expected to report on Dec 10 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±2.7%
avg realized: ±2.6%

Dec 12 '24Dec 12 '24confirmed±2.8%▲+0.10%×0.04

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±3.5%▼−6.07%×1.76

May 29 '25May 29 '25confirmed±2.6%▲+3.12%×1.19

Sep 25 '25Sep 25 '25confirmed±2.9%▼−2.90%×0.98

Dec 11 '25Dec 11 '25confirmed±2.7%0.00%×0.00

Q2 FY26Mar 5 '26confirmed±2.4%▲+1.58%×0.66

Q3 FY26May 28 '26confirmed±2.5%▼−3.91%×1.56

Q4 FY26Sep 24 '26confirmed±2.5%▲+2.93%×1.16

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q4 FY26±2.5%▲+2.93%×1.16

Q3 FY26±2.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Nov 4 close

1.74OI · 11 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Dec 11 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3 nearer expiries

13,535+26%Nov 61d1.1012,308+58%1.10

12,577+35%Nov 138d2.734,612+46%2.73

24,551+10%Nov 2015d1.2918,960+8%1.29

7,433+6%Nov 2722d3.042,448+14%3.04

118+174%Dec 429d1.11106+43%1.11

report · Dec 10 · after close · est.

3 later expiries

3,897+7%Feb 19106d0.864,534+14%0.86

7,7450%Mar 19134d1.37

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

3 nearer expiries

Nov 61d13,535+26%12,308+58%1.10

Nov 138d12,577+35%4,612+46%2.73

Nov 2015d24,551+10%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.3%

Funds 4

XLP±0.5%

VIG±0.1%

QQQ±0.1%

VUG±0.1%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

derived from FYQ4 FY26

3.13%derived from FYnet margin · revenue +35.73% QoQ · +11.10% YoY

Revenue

$95.7B+35.73% QoQ

Gross profit

$12.2B+35.35% QoQ

12.74% margin

Operating income

$3.8B+35.03% QoQ

3.97% margin

Pre-tax income

$4.0B+36.45% QoQ

Net income

$3.0B+36.77% QoQ

3.13% margin

Cost of revenue

$83.5B+35.78% QoQ

Operating expenses

$8.4B+35.49% QoQ

Tax

$1.0B+35.52% QoQ

Other income

$208M+69.11% QoQ

Revenue$95.7B+35.73%

Gross profit

$12.2B+35.35%

12.74% margin

Operating income

$3.8B+35.03%

3.97% margin

Pre-tax income

$4.0B+36.45%

Net income

$3.0B+36.77%

3.13% margin

Cost of revenue

$83.5B+35.78%

Operating expenses

$8.4B+35.49%

Other income$208M+69.11%

Tax$1.0B+35.52%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQDerived: FY − Q1–Q3 · QE Aug 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 07:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.38· ±1.3% vs ±0.9% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%6 of 11×1.38

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%9 of 20×1.21

FOMCrate decision±1.0%9 of 24×1.06

PPIproducer prices±1.0%4 of 11×1.05

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%7 of 20×0.94

NFPjobs report±0.8%5 of 10×0.89

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%3 of 12×0.76

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 6.75 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q4 FY26	Sep 24 '26 · confirmed	6.75	—
Q3 FY26	May 28 '26 · confirmed	4.93	—
Q2 FY26	Mar 5 '26 · confirmed	4.58	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod