What move does the options market price into Coinbase Global's report?

Implied ±24.7%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Coinbase Global move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

COINNasdaqFinance Services

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

142.45

−18.14 · −11.29%

post 145.08 +1.84%

Closed19:58 ET

Open152.33Volume20.9MMkt cap$38.0BEPS-2.79

Day138.09 – 153.1546%52-wk136.89 – 361.404%

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±24.7%implied · straddle

108.14178.94

spot 143.54exp Feb 19ATM strike 145ATM straddle 41.65IV 66%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 11

after close · in 102 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−10.62%

vs ±5.9% implied · ×1.79

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dAXP · supplierAmerican Express issues $1,500,000,000 5.447% and $1,150,000,000 5.817% notes; $350,000,000 floating
2dMSTR · customerStrategy approves daily dividends for four preferred series; Proposal 1 381,373,199 for
3dSKYA · customerSkyAI: Bastion to tender 4,649,745 shares, 4,234,615 pre-funded and 5,384,615 stapled warrants

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.69%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

1,126 managers

Top fund weight

4.17%

COIN weight · ARKK

N-PORTJul 31 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Coinbase Global (COIN) is expected to report on Feb 11 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.7%
avg realized: ±9.3%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±7.9%▼−7.98%×1.01

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±5.7%▼−3.48%×0.61

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−16.70%×3.06

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed±5.7%▲+4.65%×0.82

Feb 12 '26Feb 12 '26confirmed±7.2%▲+16.46%×2.28

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±6.4%▲+4.25%×0.66

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±9.1%▼−10.59%×1.16

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−10.62%×1.79

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.9%▼−10.62%×1.79

Q2 FY26±9.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.37OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

22,025+8%Nov 65d1.5514,207+19%1.55

11,293+2%Nov 1312d1.348,410+3%1.34

49,2000%Nov 2019d0.7070,1360%0.70

1,910+149%Nov 2726d0.702,713+103%0.70

414+38%Dec 433d1.22339+9%1.22

32—Dec 1140d0.3398—0.33

62,274−1%Dec 1847d0.7583,293+8%0.75

83,573+2%Jan 1575d0.73114,5140%0.73

report · Feb 11 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 65d22,025+8%14,207+19%1.55

Nov 1312d11,293+2%8,410+3%1.34

Nov 2019d49,2000%70,136

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±24.7%

Funds 4

ARKK±1.0%

BCOR±0.8%

XLF±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

Customers 4

CLSK±19.0%×0.77

RIOT±17.5%×0.71

KULR±10.8%×0.44

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

59.12%as filednet margin · revenue −0.37% QoQ · −34.95% YoY

Revenue

$1.2B−0.37% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.2B−0.37% QoQ

100.00% margin

Operating income

$62M+154.34% QoQ

5.07% margin

Pre-tax income

$824M+308.37% QoQ

Net income

$719M+299.93% QoQ

59.12% margin

Operating expenses

$1.2B−13.47% QoQ

R&D $447M

SG&A $319M

Marketing $243M

Other operating $145M

Tax

$105M+392.70% QoQ

Other income

$762M+370.37% QoQ

Revenue$1.2B−0.37%

Gross profit

$1.2B−0.37%

100.00% margin

Operating income

$62M+154.34%

5.07% margin

Pre-tax income

$824M+308.37%

Net income

$719M+299.93%

59.12% margin

Cost of revenue

Operating expenses

$1.2B−13.47%

R&D $447M

SG&A $319M

Marketing $243M

Other income$762M+370.37%

Tax$105M+392.70%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.15· ±4.2% vs ±3.6% · 9 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.2%4 of 9×1.15

FOMCrate decision±3.9%11 of 24×1.08

CPIconsumer prices±3.4%6 of 10×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±3.1%2 of 12×0.86

PPIproducer prices±3.1%5 of 10×0.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.8%8 of 19×0.78

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%8 of 19×0.76

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.51 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	2.51	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	-1.36	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	-1.49	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod