What move does the options market price into Churchill Downs's report?

Implied ±15.2%, either direction · provisional.

CHDNNasdaqServices-Racing, Including Track Operation

Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

97.31

−1.70 · −1.72%

post 97.31 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open98.30Volume1.8MMkt cap$6.8BP/E15.02EPS6.48Div yield0.44%

Day97.15 – 98.5211%52-wk73.09 – 118.3554%

CHDN

Churchill Downs Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.2%implied · straddle

82.82112.48

spot 97.65exp Mar 19ATM strike 100ATM straddle 17.45IV 37%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 24

after close · in 113 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+11.24%

vs ±7.1% implied · ×1.58

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2hJPM · supplierJPMorganChase Files Form 10-Q for the Quarter Ended September 30, 2026
6dDKNG · customerDraftKings CEO Jason Robins says parents should talk with kids about responsible gambling

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+19.38%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

464 managers

Top fund weight

0.16%

CHDN weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Churchill Downs (CHDN) is expected to report on Feb 24 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▼−6.60%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±7.1%▲+11.24%×1.58

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±7.1%▲+11.24%×1.58

Q2 FY26—▼−6.60%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.55OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

17,1610%Nov 2017d41.15417−15%41.15

547−5%Dec 1845d0.242,251−2%0.24

0—Jan 1573d—0——

report · Feb 24 · after close · est.

322+3%Mar 19136d587+162%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d17,1610%417−15%41.15

Dec 1845d547−5%2,251−2%0.24

Jan 1573d0—0——

report · Feb 24 · after close · est.

Mar 19136d322+3%587+162%0.55

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.2%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

11.49%as filednet margin · revenue −28.98% QoQ · +1.90% YoY

Revenue

$696M−28.98% QoQ

Gross profit

$207M−50.60% QoQ

29.74% margin

Operating income

$143M−59.94% QoQ

20.55% margin

Pre-tax income

$111M−66.16% QoQ

Net income

$80M−66.94% QoQ

11.49% margin

Cost of revenue

$489M−12.83% QoQ

Operating expenses

$64M+3.23% QoQ

SG&A $60M

Other operating $4M

Other expense

$32M

Tax

$31M−63.95% QoQ

Revenue$696M−28.98%

Gross profit

$207M−50.60%

29.74% margin

Operating income

$143M−59.94%

20.55% margin

Pre-tax income

$111M−66.16%

Net income

$80M−66.94%

11.49% margin

Cost of revenue

$489M−12.83%

Operating expenses

$64M+3.23%

SG&A $60M

Other operating $4M

Other expense

$32M

Tax$31M−63.95%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.62· ±2.2% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.2%4 of 10×1.62

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%8 of 19×1.10

PPIproducer prices±1.4%6 of 10×1.02

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%9 of 19×1.00

FOMCrate decision±1.2%13 of 24×0.90

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%4 of 12×0.78

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%3 of 10×0.68

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.15 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	1.15	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	3.43	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.16	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod