What move does the options market price into CF Industries's report?

Implied ±4.0%, either direction.

How often does CF Industries move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CFNYSEAgricultural Chemicals

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

123.48

Closed18:05 ET

Open119.83Volume1.7MMkt cap$18.7BP/E9.15EPS13.49Div yield1.70%

Day119.54 – 123.48100%52-wk74.33 – 141.6673%

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.2%·×1.80·rich

118.33128.27

straddle ±5.8%

spot 123.30exp Nov 6ATM strike 123ATM straddle 8.45IV 62%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 3 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.02%

vs ±4.4% implied · ×0.00

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

13.00%

of CF revenue · CHS

customerCF 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.66%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

963 managers

Top fund weight

2.23%

CF weight · XLB

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

CF Industries (CF) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.3%
avg realized: ±2.2%

Nov 5 '25Nov 5 '25confirmed±4.4%▼−4.23%×0.95

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±4.4%▼−4.23%×0.95

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±3.6%▲+3.80%×1.05

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±4.8%▼−0.90%×0.19

Q1 FY26May 6 '26confirmed±4.8%▼−0.90%×0.19

Aug 5 '26Aug 5 '26confirmed±4.4%▲+0.02%×0.00

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±4.4%▲+0.02%×0.00

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q2 FY26±4.4%▲+0.02%×0.00

Aug '26±4.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 26 close

0.68OI · 9 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

727+11%Nov 65d1,071+18%

88+44%Nov 1312d0.22407+187%0.22

9,355+12%Nov 2019d1.088,677+8%1.08

14—Nov 2726d0.9315—0.93

5—Dec 433d0.717—0.71

4 later expiries

2,654+13%Dec 1847d0.535,007+1%0.53

10,9380%Jan 1575d0.52

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d727+11%1,071+18%0.68

Nov 1312d88+44%407+187%0.22

Nov 2019d9,355+12%8,677+8%1.08

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.8%

Funds 4

XLB±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

Suppliers 1

OXY±2.7%×0.47

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

39.11%as filednet margin · revenue +11.88% QoQ · +17.57% YoY

Revenue

$2.2B+11.88% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.1B+53.49% QoQ

51.53% margin

Operating income

$1.1B+29.90% QoQ

50.45% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.1B+29.50% QoQ

Net income

$869M+28.55% QoQ

39.11% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.1B−13.15% QoQ

Operating expenses

$74M+163.25% QoQ

Tax

$224M+33.33% QoQ

Other income

$22M+215.79% QoQ

Revenue$2.2B+11.88%

Gross profit

$1.1B+53.49%

51.53% margin

Operating income

$1.1B+29.90%

50.45% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.1B+29.50%

Net income

$869M+28.55%

39.11% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.1B−13.15%

Operating expenses

$74M+163.25%

Other income$22M+215.79%

Tax$224M+33.33%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.58· ±2.6% vs ±1.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.6%7 of 10×1.58

PPIproducer prices±2.3%3 of 10×1.42

NFPjobs report±2.3%5 of 10×1.40

FOMCrate decision±1.8%10 of 24×1.09

CPROFcorporate profits±1.7%5 of 12×1.06

GDPgross domestic product±1.7%6 of 19×1.06

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%8 of 19×0.96

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.73 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	4.73	—
Q1 FY26	May 6 '26 · confirmed	3.98	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	2.19	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod