What move does the options market price into APA's report?

Implied ±18.8%, either direction · provisional.

How often does APA move more than the options market prices?

6 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

APANasdaqCrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

APA Corp (APA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

52.79

Closed19:24 ET

Open52.42Volume4.4MMkt cap$18.5BP/E11.16EPS4.73Div yield1.89%

Day52.04 – 52.8395%52-wk21.03 – 52.9699%

APA

APA Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±18.8%implied · straddle

42.9062.74

spot 52.82exp Mar 19ATM strike 52.5ATM straddle 11.67IV 45%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 24

after close · in 115 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.79%

vs ±2.4% implied · ×1.58

Linked news

2dCUZ · supplierCousins Properties posts Q3 net income available to common stockholders $17,000 thousand, EPS $0.10

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.44%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

818 managers

Top fund weight

0.69%

APA weight · XLE

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

APA (APA) is expected to report on Feb 24 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

6 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.8%
avg realized: ±4.9%

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±5.0%▲+9.14%×1.83

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+4.69%×1.52

Feb 25 '26Feb 25 '26confirmed±4.8%▲+4.53%×0.95

Q1 FY26Apr 14 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−1.16%×0.34

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±4.2%▼−5.38%×1.28

Q2 FY26Jul 8 '26confirmed±2.8%▼−5.05%×1.78

Aug 5 '26Aug 5 '26confirmed±4.3%▲+5.40%×1.26

Oct 7 '26Oct 7 '26confirmed±2.4%▲+3.79%×1.58

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±2.4%▲+3.79%×1.58

Aug '26±4.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.07OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

1,775+13%Nov 65d1.681,057+41%1.68

577+29%Nov 1312d0.291,976+2%0.29

3,175+9%Nov 2019d0.457,024+13%0.45

335+162%Nov 2726d3.7290+329%3.72

21—Dec 433d21.001—21.00

2—Dec 1140d1.002—1.00

9,288+7%Dec 1847d0.6813,665−1%0.68

22,753+2%Jan 1575d0.3662,465+1%0.36

report · Feb 24 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 65d1,775+13%1,057+41%1.68

Nov 1312d577+29%1,976+2%0.29

Nov 2019d3,175+9%7,024

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±18.8%

Funds 4

XLE±0.1%

SCHD±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

Suppliers 1

HLX±9.9%×0.53

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 479dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

34.47%as filednet margin · revenue +8.31% QoQ · −8.15% YoY

Revenue$2.4B+8.31%

Gross profit$2.4B101.46%+18.79%

Operating income$1.3B53.23%+53.86%

Pre-tax income$1.3B+53.86%

Net income$827M34.47%+52.30%

Cost of revenue−$35M−121.08%

Operating expenses$1.1B−18.99%

Tax$450M+56.79%

Other income$0—

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.21· ±2.4% vs ±2.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.4%5 of 10×1.21

FOMCrate decision±2.3%8 of 24×1.14

PPIproducer prices±2.2%5 of 10×1.09

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%6 of 10×1.09

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%7 of 19×0.80

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%8 of 19×0.75

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%6 of 12×0.54

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.11 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 8 '26 · confirmed	2.11	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 14 '26 · confirmed	1.26	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	0.57	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod