What move does the options market price into Amazon.com's report?

Implied ±3.8%, either direction.

How often does Amazon.com move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AMZNNasdaqRetail-Catalog & Mail-Order Houses

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

240.85

Closed19:59 ET

Open226.11Volume104.9MMkt cap$2.6TP/E19.21EPS12.54

Day225.69 – 240.87100%52-wk196.00 – 287.2049%

AMZN

Amazon.com Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±3.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±5.6%·×0.68·cheap

231.21249.49

straddle ±13.2%

spot 240.35exp Feb 19ATM strike 240ATM straddle 37.45IV 35%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 4

after close · in 96 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.41%

vs ±8.2% implied · ×0.17

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

86.00%

of Aterian revenue

supplierATER 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.26%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

6,172 managers

Top fund weight

22.22%

AMZN weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

15 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Amazon.com (AMZN) is expected to report on Feb 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.5%
avg realized: ±5.6%

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±5.2%▼−4.05%×0.78

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±5.4%▼−0.12%×0.02

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±5.0%▼−8.27%×1.65

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±6.0%▲+9.58%×1.60

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed±7.5%▼−5.55%×0.74

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±6.5%▲+0.77%×0.12

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±8.5%▲+15.32%×1.80

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±8.2%▼−1.41%×0.17

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±8.2%▼−1.41%×0.17

Q2 FY26±8.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 13 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.10OI · 13 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

8 nearer expiries

6,783+65%Nov 22d0.6710,195+25%0.67

1,504+87%Nov 44d0.413,676+100%0.41

38,677+9%Nov 66d0.6955,999+6%0.69

0—Nov 1111d—0——

19,641+1%Nov 1313d1.2415,883+2%1.24

224,375+6%Nov 2020d0.50445,270+7%0.50

8,092+46%Nov 2727d0.7111,345+28%0.71

3,676+18%Dec 434d0.864,257+34%0.86

240,788+1%Dec 1848d0.75320,2580%0.75

352,2690%Jan 1576d0.67523,954+1%0.67

report · Feb 4 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

8 nearer expiries

Nov 22d6,783+65%10,195+25%0.67

Nov 44d1,504+87%3,676+100%0.41

Nov 66d38,677+9%55,999

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.2%

Funds 4

XLY±2.9%

GLO±0.7%

VUG±0.6%

QQQ±0.5%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.24%as filednet margin · revenue +0.67% QoQ · +12.09% YoY

Revenue

$202B+0.67% QoQ

Gross profit

$77.4B+2.90% QoQ

38.31% margin

Operating income

$28.1B+2.24% QoQ

13.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$26.9B−66.77% QoQ

Net income

$20.7B−66.98% QoQ

10.24% margin

Cost of revenue

$125B−0.67% QoQ

Operating expenses

$49.3B+3.28% QoQ

R&D $34.8B

Marketing $11.6B

SG&A $2.7B

Other expense

$1.2B

Tax

$6.2B−66.04% QoQ

Revenue$202B+0.67%

Gross profit

$77.4B+2.90%

38.31% margin

Operating income

$28.1B+2.24%

13.90% margin

Pre-tax income

$26.9B−66.77%

Net income

$20.7B−66.98%

10.24% margin

Cost of revenue

$125B−0.67%

Operating expenses

$49.3B+3.28%

R&D $34.8B

Marketing $11.6B

SG&A $2.7B

Other expense

$1.2B

Tax$6.2B−66.04%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.15· ±1.6% vs ±1.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.6%6 of 11×1.15

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.6%12 of 19×1.12

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%9 of 12×1.09

FOMCrate decision±1.6%12 of 25×1.09

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%4 of 11×1.05

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%11 of 19×0.99

NFPjobs report±1.1%6 of 10×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.89 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	1.89	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	5.75	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	2.78	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	1.95	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod