What move does the options market price into Alaska Air's report?

Implied ±18.7%, either direction · provisional.

ALKNYSEAir Transportation, Scheduled

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

35.70

Closed16:23 ET

Open35.77Volume3.0MMkt cap$4.0BEPS-1.62

Day34.52 – 35.7993%52-wk32.33 – 60.6312%

ALK

Alaska Air Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±18.7%implied · straddle

29.0442.38

spot 35.71exp Feb 19ATM strike 35ATM straddle 7.85IV 50%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 21

after close · in 82 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.39%

vs ±10.9% implied · ×0.22

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

16hBAC · supplierBank of America net income $6,933 million, diluted EPS $0.91; YTD $24,591 million, $3.23
17hSKYW · supplierSkywest three-month net income $119,523 thousand, EPS $3.08; nine-month net $321,915 thousand, EPS $8.11
23hAMZN · customerAmazon falls 2%, Intel dives 29%, as tech stocks sell off in post-earnings rout

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.63%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

494 managers

Top fund weight

0.16%

ALK weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Alaska Air (ALK) is expected to report on Jan 21 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 21 '26confirmed—▲+3.08%—

Oct 20 '26Oct 20 '26confirmed±10.9%▼−2.39%×0.22

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±10.9%▼−2.39%×0.22

Q2 FY26—+3.08%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 6 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.55OI · 6 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6,6680%Nov 2020d1.076,220+5%1.07

4,734+2%Dec 1848d0.489,840+1%0.48

9,400+2%Jan 1576d0.5417,430+2%0.54

report · Jan 21 · after close · est.

685−1%Feb 19111d1,238+6%

898+6%Mar 19139d0.233,977−6%0.23

636+18%Apr 16167d5.68112−4%5.68

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d6,6680%6,220+5%1.07

Dec 1848d4,734+2%9,840+1%0.48

Jan 1576d9,400+2%17,430+2%0.54

report · Jan 21 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±18.7%

Funds 4

MDY±0.0%

EVNT±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−1.87%as filednet margin · revenue +23.18% QoQ · +9.75% YoY

Revenue$4.1B+23.18%

Gross profit$724M17.81%+35.58%

Operating income−$168M−4.13%+39.78%

Pre-tax income−$214M+32.49%

Net income−$76M−1.87%+60.62%

Cost of revenue$3.3B+20.79%

Operating expenses$892M+9.72%

Tax−$138M−11.29%

Other expense−$46M−21.05%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.70· ±3.6% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.6%4 of 10×1.70

FOMCrate decision±2.3%10 of 24×1.07

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%3 of 10×0.96

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%10 of 19×0.92

CPROFcorporate profits±1.9%5 of 12×0.87

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%9 of 19×0.87

NFPjobs report±1.4%6 of 10×0.68

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.68 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 21 '26 · confirmed	-0.68	—
Q1 FY26	—	-1.69	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod