What move does the options market price into Automatic Data Processing's report?

Implied ±10.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Automatic Data Processing move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ADPNasdaqServices-Computer Processing & Data Preparation

Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

295.96

pre 301.65 +1.91%

Pre-market09:19 ETdelayed

Open295.05Volume2.4MMkt cap$116.9BP/E26.67EPS11.31Div yield2.30%

Day295.05 – 302.8085%52-wk185.56 – 309.4094%

ADP

Automatic Data Processing Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.5%implied · straddle

264.98327.04

spot 296.01exp Feb 19ATM strike 300ATM straddle 36.50IV 28%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

before open · in 84 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.64%

vs ±3.8% implied · ×0.69

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

17hADUS · customerAddus HomeCare posts Q3 net service revenues $387.7 million, net income $28.6 million
4dEIG · supplierEmployers Holdings posts quarterly net income of $11.6 million, EPS $0.65
5dCUZ · supplierCousins Properties posts Q3 net income available to common stockholders $17,000 thousand, EPS $0.10

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.04%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

2,292 managers

Top fund weight

2.78%

ADP weight · SCHD

N-PORTAug 31 '26

14 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is expected to report on Jan 27 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.7%
avg realized: ±3.2%

Jan 29 '25Jan 29 '25confirmed±3.5%▲+0.76%×0.22

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±3.4%▲+1.63%×0.48

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±3.0%▲+0.75%×0.25

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±3.2%▼−6.58%×2.06

Q2 FY26Jan 28 '26confirmed±4.0%▼−1.50%×0.37

Q3 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+7.98%×2.08

Q4 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±4.9%▲+3.48%×0.71

Q1 FY27Oct 28 '26confirmed±3.8%▼−2.64%×0.69

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q1 FY27±3.8%▼−2.64%×0.69

Q4 FY26±4.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.46OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

261+104%Nov 62d0.41629+139%0.41

90+429%Nov 139d0.25354+58%0.25

2,949+2%Nov 2016d0.466,448+10%0.46

156+1%Nov 2723d1.7589+13%1.75

6+500%Dec 430d0.4015+114%0.40

9+800%Dec 1137d4.502+100%4.50

3,395+1%Dec 1844d1.192,857+3%1.19

7,1920%Jan 1572d1.584,562+1%1.58

report · Jan 27 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 62d261+104%629+139%0.41

Nov 139d90+429%354+58%0.25

Nov 2016d2,949+2%6,448

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.5%

Funds 4

SCHD±0.3%

XLI±0.2%

REVS±0.1%

VIG±0.0%

Suppliers 1

EIG±4.1%×0.39

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

20.49%as filednet margin · revenue +0.31% QoQ · +6.10% YoY

Revenue

$5.5B+0.31% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.8B−0.01% QoQ

50.57% margin

Operating income

$1.5B+16.16% QoQ

26.64% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.5B+15.67% QoQ

Net income

$1.1B+14.97% QoQ

20.49% margin

Cost of revenue

$3.0B+0.09% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.3B−13.43% QoQ

SG&A $1.1B

R&D $251M

Other expense

$8M

Tax

$330M+18.13% QoQ

Revenue$5.5B+0.31%

Gross profit

$2.8B−0.01%

50.57% margin

Operating income

$1.5B+16.16%

26.64% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.5B+15.67%

Net income

$1.1B+14.97%

20.49% margin

Cost of revenue

$3.0B+0.09%

Operating expenses

$1.3B−13.43%

SG&A $1.1B

R&D $251M

Other expense

$8M

Tax$330M+18.13%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 09:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.86· ±1.8% vs ±1.0% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.8%13 of 24×1.86

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%4 of 11×1.58

NFPjobs report±1.5%4 of 10×1.57

PPIproducer prices±1.3%6 of 11×1.32

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%5 of 12×1.12

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%10 of 20×1.10

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%10 of 20×1.05

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.83 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	2.83	—
Q4 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	2.45	—
Q3 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	3.38	—
Q2 FY26	Jan 28 '26 · confirmed	2.62	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod