What move does the options market price into Aaon's report?

Implied ±12.4%, either direction.

AAONNasdaqAir-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip

Aaon, Inc. (AAON) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

69.05

Closed19:37 ET

Open68.40Volume814,636Mkt cap$5.7BP/E35.59EPS1.94Div yield0.58%

Day68.34 – 70.8528%52-wk65.55 – 150.164%

AAON

Aaon, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.4%implied · report alone

60.5377.63

straddle ±15.3%

spot 69.08exp Nov 20ATM strike 70ATM straddle 12.45IV 104%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.89%

vs ±16.3% implied · ×0.36

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

−6.20%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

470 managers

Top fund weight

0.24%

AAON weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Aaon (AAON) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±16.3%▼−5.89%×0.36

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±16.3%▼−5.89%×0.36

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.21OI · 5 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

833+8%Nov 2016d4,007+4%

328+2%Dec 1844d0.824020%0.82

5420%Jan 1572d0.541,0090%0.54

270+1%Mar 19135d0.803370%0.80

2620%Apr 16163d3.85680%3.85

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d833+8%4,007+4%0.21

Dec 1844d328+2%4020%0.82

Jan 1572d5420%1,0090%0.54

Mar 19135d270+1%3370%0.80

Apr 16163d2620%680%3.85

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.3%

Funds 3

MDY±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

9.04%as filednet margin · revenue +26.17% QoQ · +101.23% YoY

Revenue

$627M+26.17% QoQ

Gross profit

$152M+22.03% QoQ

24.32% margin

Operating income

$69M+20.72% QoQ

10.99% margin

Pre-tax income

$63M+20.67% QoQ

Net income

$57M+42.31% QoQ

9.04% margin

Cost of revenue

$474M+27.56% QoQ

Operating expenses

$84M+23.12% QoQ

Other expense

$6M

Tax

$6M−49.55% QoQ

Revenue$627M+26.17%

Gross profit

$152M+22.03%

24.32% margin

Operating income

$69M+20.72%

10.99% margin

Pre-tax income

$63M+20.67%

Net income

$57M+42.31%

9.04% margin

Cost of revenue

$474M+27.56%

Operating expenses

$84M+23.12%

Other expense

$6M

Tax$6M−49.55%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.05· ±4.6% vs ±2.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.6%7 of 10×2.05

GDPgross domestic product±3.5%11 of 19×1.56

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.5%13 of 19×1.11

CPIconsumer prices±2.5%5 of 10×1.11

PPIproducer prices±2.1%7 of 10×0.95

FOMCrate decision±2.1%11 of 24×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±1.9%7 of 12×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.68 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	0.68	—
Q1 FY26	—	0.48	—
Q3 FY25	—	0.37	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod