What move does the options market price into American Airlines's report?

Implied ±17.2%, either direction · provisional.

AALNasdaqAir Transportation, Scheduled

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

12.83

−0.25 · −1.91%

post 12.80 −0.28%

Closed19:45 ET

Open12.98Volume84.2MMkt cap$8.7BEPS-0.73

Day12.80 – 13.140%52-wk10.09 – 18.7931%

AAL

American Airlines Group Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±17.2%implied · straddle

10.6115.03

spot 12.82exp Feb 19ATM strike 13ATM straddle 2.60IV 47%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

before open · in 84 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.98%

vs ±5.0% implied · ×0.60

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2hCRWD · supplierCrowdStrike's new kill switch can stop rogue AI agents in their tracks, CEO says
3hBKNG · supplierBooking Holdings net income $2,717 million, revenues $8,893 million for quarter ended Sep 30, 2026

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+12.27%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

595 managers

Top fund weight

0.33%

AAL weight · MDY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

American Airlines (AAL) is expected to report on Jan 26 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed—▲+6.79%—

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±5.0%▲+2.98%×0.60

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.0%▲+2.98%×0.60

Q2 FY26—▲+6.79%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 close

3.25OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

23,151+33%Nov 63d0.9025,717+50%0.90

11,382+22%Nov 1310d0.8213,833+22%0.82

114,7290%Nov 2017d0.79144,890+1%0.79

4,844+19%Nov 2724d0.667,363+11%0.66

810+451%Dec 431d0.471,716+167%0.47

163+609%Dec 1138d0.58281+280%0.58

188,400+1%Dec 1845d1.20156,8340%1.20

282,178+1%Jan 1573d1.73162,972+1%1.73

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

28,951+1%Feb 19108d8,912−1%

89,7850%Mar 19136d2.6933,369+1%2.69

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 63d23,151+33%25,717+50%0.90

Nov 1310d11,382+22%13,833+22%0.82

Nov 2017d114,7290%144,890+1%0.79

Nov 2724d4,844+19%7,363+11%0.66

Dec 431d810+451%1,716+167%0.47

Dec 1138d163+609%281+280%0.58

Dec 1845d188,400+1%156,8340%1.20

Jan 1573d282,178+1%162,972+1%1.73

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

Feb 19108d28,951+1%8,912−1%3.25

Mar 19136d89,7850%33,369+1%2.69

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±17.2%

Funds 3

MDY±0.1%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−1.65%as filednet margin · revenue −2.39% QoQ · +19.31% YoY

Revenue$16.3B−2.39%

Gross profit$4.1B25.33%−6.93%

Operating income$115M0.70%−74.22%

Pre-tax income−$334M−412.15%

Net income−$269M−1.65%−478.87%

Cost of revenue$12.2B−0.75%

Operating expenses$4.0B+0.58%

Tax−$65M−280.56%

Other expense−$449M−32.45%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.36· ±2.9% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.9%4 of 10×1.36

NFPjobs report±2.3%5 of 10×1.10

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%8 of 19×0.96

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%2 of 10×0.94

CPROFcorporate profits±1.6%3 of 12×0.76

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.6%10 of 19×0.74

FOMCrate decision±1.5%12 of 24×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.41 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	-0.41	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	0.11	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.58	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod