What move does the options market price into U.S. Bancorp's report?

Implied ±9.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does U.S. Bancorp move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

USBNYSENational Commercial Banks

U.S. Bancorp (USB) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

59.46

−1.18 · −1.94%

post 59.99 +0.89%

Closed18:44 ET

Open61.04Volume7.4MMkt cap$92.6BP/E11.97EPS5.01Div yield3.53%

Day59.19 – 61.1142%52-wk43.35 – 65.4675%

USB

U.S. Bancorp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.1%implied · straddle

54.0364.87

spot 59.45exp Feb 19ATM strike 60ATM straddle 6.38IV 24%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 19

before open · in 78 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.01%

vs ±2.8% implied · ×0.73

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 15 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

24dAMH · customerAMH Announces Dates of Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
40dPLUG · customerPlug Power Expands Hydrogen Footprint Across New Zealand and Australia with GenEco™ Electrolyzer Delivery to HWR Hydrogen
47dFCNCA · customerIs First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) an Undervalued Opportunity?

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.21%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

2,070 managers

Top fund weight

1.23%

USB weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

U.S. Bancorp (USB) is expected to report on Jan 19 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.0%
avg realized: ±2.0%

Jan 16 '25Jan 16 '25confirmed±3.3%▼−5.64%×1.71

Apr 16 '25Apr 16 '25confirmed±3.4%▼−2.10%×0.61

Jul 17 '25Jul 17 '25confirmed±2.6%▼−1.03%×0.39

Q3 FY25Oct 16 '25confirmed±3.2%▼−1.72%×0.54

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±3.3%▼−0.04%×0.01

Q1 FY26Apr 16 '26confirmed±2.8%▼−1.58%×0.56

Q2 FY26Jul 16 '26confirmed±2.6%▲+1.59%×0.61

Oct 15 '26Oct 15 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+2.01%×0.73

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±2.8%▲+2.01%×0.73

Q2 FY26±2.6%▲+1.59%×0.61

Q1 FY26±2.8%▼−1.58%×0.56

Jan '26±3.3%▼−0.04%×0.01

Q3 FY25±3.2%▼−1.72%×0.54

Jul '25±2.6%▼−1.03%×0.39

2 older reports

Apr '25±3.4%▼−2.10%×0.61

Jan '25±3.3%▼−5.64%×1.71

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.26OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

3,404+3%Nov 64d2.521,351+46%2.52

466+56%Nov 1311d0.52896+38%0.52

6,705+25%Nov 2018d0.4814,104+4%0.48

215+20%Nov 2725d0.102,240+138%0.10

12—Dec 432d1.339+800%1.33

1—Dec 1139d—0——

10,983+3%Dec 1846d0.3531,0810%0.35

26,005+1%Jan 1574d0.9726,715+4%0.97

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

831+4%Feb 19109d3,180+2%

8,924+1%Mar 19137d0.909,8660%0.90

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 64d3,404+3%1,351+46%2.52

Nov 1311d466+56%896+38%0.52

Nov 2018d6,705+25%14,104+4%0.48

Nov 2725d215+20%2,240+138%0.10

Dec 432d12—9+800%1.33

Dec 1139d1—0——

Dec 1846d10,983+3%31,0810%0.35

Jan 1574d26,005+1%26,715+4%0.97

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

Feb 19109d831+4%3,180+2%0.26

Mar 19137d8,924+1%9,8660%0.90

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.1%

Funds 4

XLF±0.1%

REVS±0.1%

VTV±0.0%

JEPI±0.0%

Customers 1

FCNCA±8.4%×0.92

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

28.40%as filednet margin · revenue +5.87% QoQ · +10.19% YoY

Revenue$7.7B+5.87%

Pre-tax income$2.7B+12.44%

Net income$2.2B28.40%+11.95%

Tax$537M+14.50%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 18:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.68· ±2.0% vs ±1.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.0%10 of 24×1.68

PPIproducer prices±1.4%4 of 10×1.15

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%7 of 12×0.80

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%11 of 19×0.71

NFPjobs report±0.8%4 of 10×0.70

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%11 of 19×0.69

CPIconsumer prices±0.6%5 of 10×0.53

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.35 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 16 '26 · confirmed	1.35	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 16 '26 · confirmed	1.18	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 16 '25 · confirmed	1.22	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod