What move does the options market price into U.S. Bancorp's report?

Implied ±9.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does U.S. Bancorp move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

USBNYSENational Commercial Banks

U.S. Bancorp (USB) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

60.72

Closed17:48 ET

Open60.41Volume7.4MMkt cap$92.6BP/E12.12EPS5.01Div yield3.53%

Day60.36 – 60.72100%52-wk43.35 – 65.4679%

USB

U.S. Bancorp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.1%implied · straddle

55.0065.98

spot 60.49exp Feb 19ATM strike 60ATM straddle 6.46IV 25%

Nov 2 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 19

before open · in 77 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.01%

vs ±2.8% implied · ×0.73

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 15 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

11hPAY · supplierPaymentus reports Q3 revenue $372.2 million and adjusted EBITDA $49.7 million
25dAMH · customerAMH Announces Dates of Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
41dPLUG · customerPlug Power Expands Hydrogen Footprint Across New Zealand and Australia with GenEco™ Electrolyzer Delivery to HWR Hydrogen

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.21%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

2,070 managers

Top fund weight

1.23%

USB weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

U.S. Bancorp (USB) is expected to report on Jan 19 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.0%
avg realized: ±2.0%

Jan 16 '25Jan 16 '25confirmed±3.3%▼−5.64%×1.71

Apr 16 '25Apr 16 '25confirmed±3.4%▼−2.10%×0.61

Jul 17 '25Jul 17 '25confirmed±2.6%▼−1.03%×0.39

Q3 FY25Oct 16 '25confirmed±3.2%▼−1.72%×0.54

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±3.3%▼−0.04%×0.01

Q1 FY26Apr 16 '26confirmed±2.8%▼−1.58%×0.56

Q2 FY26Jul 16 '26confirmed±2.6%▲+1.59%×0.61

Oct 15 '26Oct 15 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+2.01%×0.73

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±2.8%▲+2.01%×0.73

Q2 FY26±2.6%▲+1.59%×0.61

Q1 FY26±2.8%▼−1.58%×0.56

Jan '26±3.3%▼−0.04%×0.01

Q3 FY25±3.2%▼−1.72%×0.54

Jul '25±2.6%▼−1.03%×0.39

2 older reports

Apr '25±3.4%▼−2.10%×0.61

Jan '25±3.3%▼−5.64%×1.71

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.26OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

3,511+3%Nov 63d2.421,453+8%2.42

535+15%Nov 1310d0.56949+6%0.56

6,6880%Nov 2017d0.4714,210+1%0.47

217+1%Nov 2724d0.102,2420%0.10

12—Dec 431d1.339+800%1.33

85+8400%Dec 1138d0.9490—0.94

11,076+1%Dec 1845d0.3631,0660%0.36

26,005+1%Jan 1573d0.9726,715+4%0.97

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

815−2%Feb 19108d3,1920%

8,9470%Mar 19136d0.919,8770%0.91

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 63d3,511+3%1,453+8%2.42

Nov 1310d535+15%949+6%0.56

Nov 2017d6,6880%14,210+1%0.47

Nov 2724d217+1%2,2420%0.10

Dec 431d12—9+800%1.33

Dec 1138d85+8400%90—0.94

Dec 1845d11,076+1%31,0660%0.36

Jan 1573d26,005+1%26,715+4%0.97

report · Jan 19 · before open · est.

Feb 19108d815−2%3,1920%0.26

Mar 19136d8,9470%9,8770%0.91

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.1%

Funds 4

XLF±0.1%

REVS±0.1%

VTV±0.0%

JEPI±0.0%

Customers 1

FCNCA±8.4%×0.92

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

28.40%as filednet margin · revenue +5.87% QoQ · +10.19% YoY

Revenue$7.7B+5.87%

Pre-tax income$2.7B+12.44%

Net income$2.2B28.40%+11.95%

Tax$537M+14.50%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.73· ±2.0% vs ±1.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.0%10 of 24×1.73

PPIproducer prices±1.4%5 of 11×1.23

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%7 of 12×0.82

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%12 of 20×0.76

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%12 of 20×0.74

NFPjobs report±0.8%4 of 10×0.71

CPIconsumer prices±0.7%5 of 11×0.58

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.35 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 16 '26 · confirmed	1.35	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 16 '26 · confirmed	1.18	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 16 '25 · confirmed	1.22	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod