What move does the options market price into Union Pacific's report?

Implied ±8.7%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Union Pacific move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UNPNYSERailroads, Line-Haul Operating

Union Pacific Corp (UNP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

303.00

Closed17:16 ET

Open304.40Volume2.8MMkt cap$180.7BP/E23.60EPS12.84Div yield1.83%

Day301.96 – 307.3919%52-wk211.86 – 314.5389%

UNP

Union Pacific Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.7%implied · straddle

277.48330.52

spot 304.00exp Feb 19ATM strike 305ATM straddle 31.20IV 23%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

before open · in 87 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.55%

vs ±2.8% implied · ×1.27

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dSNDR · customerSchneider National reports Q3 revenue $1,585.3 million, net income $49.5 million
49dIPI · customerIntrepid’s (IPI) Trio Turnaround Funds A Bigger Buyback And Cleaner Balance Sheet

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.09%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

2,905 managers

Top fund weight

2.80%

UNP weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Union Pacific (UNP) is expected to report on Jan 26 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.1%
avg realized: ±3.9%

Jan 23 '25Jan 23 '25confirmed±3.4%▲+5.20%×1.53

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±3.7%▼−1.97%×0.54

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±2.6%▼−4.54%×1.74

Oct 23 '25Oct 23 '25confirmed±3.3%▼−2.31%×0.70

Jan 27 '26Jan 27 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+0.72%×0.25

Q1 FY26Apr 23 '26confirmed±3.0%▲+8.77%×2.89

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed±3.5%▲+4.02%×1.16

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+3.55%×1.27

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±2.8%▲+3.55%×1.27

Q2 FY26±3.5%▲+4.02%×1.16

Q1 FY26±3.0%▲+8.77%×2.89

Jan '26±2.9%▲+0.72%×0.25

Oct '25±3.3%▼−2.31%×0.70

Jul '25±2.6%▼−4.54%×1.74

2 older reports

Apr '25±3.7%▼−1.97%×0.54

Jan '25±3.4%▲+5.20%×1.53

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.57OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

266+186%Nov 66d0.59450+61%0.59

426+4%Nov 1313d0.45946+34%0.45

4,856+1%Nov 2020d0.3414,294+2%0.34

280%Nov 2727d0.3191+1%0.31

40—Dec 434d0.25161+16000%0.25

6,9580%Dec 1848d0.858,197+4%0.85

9,779+1%Jan 1576d0.9310,530+1%0.93

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

475+17%Feb 19111d835+14%

1,265+8%Mar 19139d0.711,781+2%0.71

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 66d266+186%450+61%0.59

Nov 1313d426+4%946+34%0.45

Nov 2020d4,856+1%14,294+2%0.34

Nov 2727d280%91+1%0.31

Dec 434d40—161+16000%0.25

Dec 1848d6,9580%8,197+4%0.85

Jan 1576d9,779+1%10,530+1%0.93

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

Feb 19111d475+17%835+14%0.57

Mar 19139d1,265+8%1,781+2%0.71

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.7%

Funds 4

XLI±0.2%

VIG±0.1%

VTV±0.1%

JEPI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

28.85%as filednet margin · revenue +4.85% QoQ · +15.26% YoY

Revenue

$7.2B+4.85% QoQ

Gross profit

$5.2B+4.04% QoQ

72.32% margin

Operating income

$2.9B+6.51% QoQ

40.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.7B+6.69% QoQ

Net income

$2.1B+4.16% QoQ

28.85% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.0B+7.04% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.3B+0.98% QoQ

SG&A $1.6B

Depreciation $643M

Other expense

$217M

Tax

$650M+15.66% QoQ

Revenue$7.2B+4.85%

Gross profit

$5.2B+4.04%

72.32% margin

Operating income

$2.9B+6.51%

40.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.7B+6.69%

Net income

$2.1B+4.16%

28.85% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.0B+7.04%

Operating expenses

$2.3B+0.98%

SG&A $1.6B

Depreciation $643M

Other expense

$217M

Tax$650M+15.66%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.38· ±1.3% vs ±1.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.3%5 of 10×1.38

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%11 of 19×1.28

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%8 of 12×1.19

FOMCrate decision±1.1%9 of 24×1.18

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%12 of 19×1.04

PPIproducer prices±0.7%7 of 10×0.74

CPIconsumer prices±0.6%3 of 10×0.58

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.49 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	3.49	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	3.36	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 23 '26 · confirmed	2.87	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod