How often does Tractor Supply move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TSCONasdaqRetail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply

Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

34.00

+0.06 · +0.18%

post 35.29 +3.78%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open34.37Volume10.8MMkt cap$17.7BP/E18.28EPS1.93Div yield2.80%

Day34.36 – 35.29100%52-wk28.17 – 55.6026%

TSCO

Tractor Supply Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 28

before open · in 87 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+6.24%

vs ±5.5% implied · ×1.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

9hNWS · supplierNews Corp repurchases US$368,419,264.23 of Class A and US$191,918,972.96 of Class B
6dRCKY · supplierRocky Brands Q3 net sales $138.8 million; net income $12.8 million, $1.69 diluted
19dKTB · supplierHere are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Brinker, Kontoor Brands & more

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+23.49%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

1,065 managers

Top fund weight

0.41%

TSCO weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Tractor Supply (TSCO) is expected to report on Jan 28 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.9%
avg realized: ±5.1%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±4.3%▼−5.02%×1.16

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±4.9%▼−3.41%×0.70

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±4.9%▼−0.47%×0.10

Q3 FY25Oct 23 '25confirmed±3.4%▲+2.77%×0.82

Jan 29 '26Jan 29 '26confirmed±4.1%▼−7.58%×1.83

Q1 FY26Apr 21 '26confirmed±6.6%▼−11.69%×1.78

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed±5.5%▲+3.27%×0.60

Oct 22 '26Oct 22 '26confirmed±5.5%▲+6.24%×1.13

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±5.5%▲+6.24%×1.13

Q2 FY26±5.5%▲+3.27%×0.60

Q1 FY26±6.6%▼−11.69%×1.78

Jan '26±4.1%▼−7.58%×1.83

Q3 FY25±3.4%▲+2.77%×0.82

Jul '25±4.9%▼−0.47%×0.10

2 older reports

Apr '25±4.9%▼−3.41%×0.70

Jan '25±4.3%▼−5.02%×1.16

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.13OI · 9 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

468+11%Nov 64d0.60783+10%0.60

556+18%Nov 1311d0.90617+7%0.90

6,997+1%Nov 2018d0.5213,485+1%0.52

58+5%Nov 2725d0.14420+11%0.14

104+33%Dec 432d4.9521+425%4.95

4,5020%Dec 1846d0.2816,158+1%0.28

8,220+1%Jan 1574d0.2433,863+13%0.24

report · Jan 28 · before open · est.

2,5850%Mar 19137d19,3420%

2460%Apr 16165d0.27921+3%0.27

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 64d468+11%783+10%0.60

Nov 1311d556+18%617+7%0.90

Nov 2018d6,997+1%13,485+1%0.52

Nov 2725d58+5%420+11%0.14

Dec 432d104+33%21+425%4.95

Dec 1846d4,5020%16,158+1%0.28

Jan 1574d8,220+1%33,863+13%0.24

report · Jan 28 · before open · est.

Mar 19137d2,5850%19,3420%0.13

Apr 16165d2460%921+3%0.27

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

7.94%as filednet margin · revenue +26.43% QoQ · +2.29% YoY

Revenue

$4.5B+26.43% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.7B+29.31% QoQ

37.05% margin

Operating income

$467M+100.11% QoQ

10.29% margin

Pre-tax income

$450M+109.97% QoQ

Net income

$361M+119.25% QoQ

7.94% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.9B+24.79% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.2B+13.84% QoQ

SG&A $1.0B

Depreciation $131M

Other operating $63M

Other expense

$17M

Tax

$89M+79.31% QoQ

Revenue$4.5B+26.43%

Gross profit

$1.7B+29.31%

37.05% margin

Operating income

$467M+100.11%

10.29% margin

Pre-tax income

$450M+109.97%

Net income

$361M+119.25%

7.94% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.9B+24.79%

Operating expenses

$1.2B+13.84%

SG&A $1.0B

Depreciation $131M

Other operating $63M

Other expense

$17M

Tax$89M+79.31%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mVolume ×0.34 · 20d avgSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.34· ±1.8% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%6 of 10×1.34

GDPgross domestic product±1.5%8 of 19×1.11

PPIproducer prices±1.4%2 of 10×1.06

NFPjobs report±1.3%5 of 10×0.98

FOMCrate decision±1.2%9 of 24×0.90

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%9 of 19×0.90

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%6 of 12×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.69 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	0.69	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 21 '26 · confirmed	0.31	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 23 '25 · confirmed	0.49	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod