What move does the options market price into TransDigm's report?

Implied ±4.5%, either direction.

How often does TransDigm move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TDGNYSEAircraft Parts & Auxiliary Equipment, NEC

TransDigm Group Inc (TDG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

1,147.02

Closed19:51 ET

Open1,179.99Volume395,435Mkt cap$63.4BP/E29.78

Day1,147.02 – 1,185.240%52-wk1,071.25 – 1,463.0319%

TDG

TransDigm Group Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.9%·×0.92·fair

1,094.871,198.75

straddle ±6.8%

spot 1,146.81exp Nov 20ATM strike 1150ATM straddle 91.85IV 42%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 11

before open · in 10 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.82%

vs ±6.2% implied · ×0.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

40.00%

of TDG revenue · Top ten customers

customerTDG 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−3.53%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

1,145 managers

Top fund weight

1.29%

TDG weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

TransDigm (TDG) is expected to report on Nov 11 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.1%
avg realized: ±5.1%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed—▼−3.85%—

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±7.0%▼−3.34%×0.48

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±7.0%▼−5.48%×0.79

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±3.8%▼−11.94%×3.12

Nov 12 '25Nov 12 '25confirmed±5.5%▲+1.08%×0.20

Q1 FY26Feb 3 '26confirmed±4.9%▼−9.31%×1.89

Q2 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±8.1%▲+3.62%×0.45

Q3 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±6.2%▼−0.82%×0.13

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.2%▼−0.82%×0.13

Q2 FY26±8.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 26 close

2.42OI · 3 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,505+38%Nov 2019d1,036+2%

5970%Dec 1847d0.866960%0.86

338+10%Feb 19110d0.82412+1%0.82

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d2,505+38%1,036+2%2.42

Dec 1847d5970%6960%0.86

Feb 19110d338+10%412+1%0.82

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±6.8%

Funds 4

XLI±0.1%

JEPI±0.0%

VUG±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

Suppliers 1

DCO±2.7%×0.39

Customers 1

BA±3.1%×0.46

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

19.70%as filednet margin · revenue +7.74% QoQ · +22.53% YoY

Revenue

$2.7B+7.74% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.6B+7.74% QoQ

59.39% margin

Operating income

$1.2B+4.16% QoQ

44.76% margin

Pre-tax income

$713M+1.86% QoQ

Net income

$540M+0.75% QoQ

19.70% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.1B+7.74% QoQ

Operating expenses

$401M+20.42% QoQ

SG&A $332M

Other operating $69M

Other expense

$514M

Tax

$173M+5.49% QoQ

Revenue$2.7B+7.74%

Gross profit

$1.6B+7.74%

59.39% margin

Operating income

$1.2B+4.16%

44.76% margin

Pre-tax income

$713M+1.86%

Net income

$540M+0.75%

19.70% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.1B+7.74%

Operating expenses

$401M+20.42%

SG&A $332M

Other operating $69M

Other expense

$514M

Tax$173M+5.49%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.59· ±1.9% vs ±1.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.9%8 of 10×1.59

NFPjobs report±1.4%5 of 10×1.15

FOMCrate decision±1.3%11 of 24×1.12

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%2 of 10×0.91

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%13 of 19×0.88

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%11 of 19×0.86

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%8 of 12×0.81

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 9.39 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	9.39	—
Q2 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	9.20	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 3 '26 · confirmed	6.62	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod