What move does the options market price into Super Micro's report?

Implied ±29.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Super Micro move more than the options market prices?

7 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SMCINasdaqElectronic Computers

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

31.64

pre 33.69 +7.33%

Pre-market04:46 ETdelayed

Open33.51Volume41.3MMkt cap$20.0BP/E9.23EPS3.65

Day33.51 – 33.63100%52-wk19.48 – 53.0142%

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±29.5%implied · straddle

22.1340.65

spot 31.39exp Feb 19ATM strike 31ATM straddle 10.90IV 79%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 2

after close · in 90 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 3

after close

confirmedNov 2 close

Implied vs realized

Linked news

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+19.40%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

788 managers

Top fund weight

0.25%

SMCI weight · IGPT

N-PORTJul 31 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Super Micro (SMCI) is expected to report on Feb 2 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

7 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.6%
avg realized: ±13.6%

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±6.4%▼−11.50%×1.79

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±10.1%▼−1.40%×0.14

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±10.5%▼−18.29%×1.74

Oct 23 '25Oct 23 '25confirmed±4.3%▼−8.72%×2.01

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±9.3%▼−11.33%×1.22

Q2 FY26Feb 3 '26confirmed±11.4%▲+13.78%×1.20

Q3 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±12.4%▲+24.54%×1.99

Q4 FY26Aug 11 '26confirmed±12.8%▲+19.02%×1.49

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q4 FY26±12.8%▲+19.02%×1.49

Q3 FY26±12.4%▲+24.54%×1.99

Q2 FY26±11.4%▲+13.78%×1.20

Nov '25±9.3%▼−11.33%×1.22

Oct '25±4.3%▼−8.72%×2.01

Aug '25±10.5%▼−18.29%×1.74

2 older reports

May '25±10.1%▼−1.40%×0.14

Apr '25±6.4%▼−11.50%×1.79

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 close

1.07OI · 10 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

45,205+69%Nov 62d0.22209,077+103%0.22

12,486+7%Nov 139d0.4925,302+7%0.49

77,3490%Nov 2016d0.56138,863+1%0.56

7,758+4%Nov 2723d0.5713,534+12%0.57

1,011+19%Dec 430d0.581,743+267%0.58

484+1629%Dec 1137d3.67132+1220%3.67

130,652+2%Dec 1844d0.75173,484+4%0.75

385,231+4%Jan 1572d1.29299,110+7%1.29

report · Feb 2 · after close · est.

27,907+6%Feb 19107d26,171+5%

72,377+2%Mar 19135d1.0270,859+3%1.02

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 62d45,205+69%209,077+103%0.22

Nov 139d12,486+7%25,302+7%0.49

Nov 2016d77,3490%138,863+1%0.56

Nov 2723d7,758+4%13,534+12%0.57

Dec 430d1,011+19%1,743+267%0.58

Dec 1137d484+1629%132+1220%3.67

Dec 1844d130,652+2%173,484+4%0.75

Jan 1572d385,231+4%299,110+7%1.29

report · Feb 2 · after close · est.

Feb 19107d27,907+6%26,171+5%1.07

Mar 19135d72,377+2%70,859+3%1.02

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±29.5%

Funds 4

IGPT±0.1%

RSP±0.1%

XLK±0.0%

VUG±0.0%

Suppliers 1

NVDA±6.1%×0.21

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

derived from FYQ4 FY26

10.60%derived from FYnet margin · revenue +8.56% QoQ · +93.16% YoY

Revenue

$11.1B+8.56% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.9B+90.70% QoQ

17.47% margin

Operating income

$1.5B+137.76% QoQ

13.38% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.5B+140.53% QoQ

Net income

$1.2B+143.74% QoQ

10.60% margin

Cost of revenue

$9.2B−0.51% QoQ

Operating expenses

$455M+15.72% QoQ

R&D $201M

Marketing $142M

SG&A $111M

Other expense

$17M

Tax

$290M+128.65% QoQ

Revenue$11.1B+8.56%

Gross profit

$1.9B+90.70%

17.47% margin

Operating income

$1.5B+137.76%

13.38% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.5B+140.53%

Net income

$1.2B+143.74%

10.60% margin

Cost of revenue

$9.2B−0.51%

Operating expenses

$455M+15.72%

R&D $201M

Marketing $142M

SG&A $111M

Other expense

$17M

Tax$290M+128.65%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQDerived: FY − Q1–Q3 · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 04:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.70· ±7.2% vs ±4.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±7.2%4 of 10×1.70

NFPjobs report±4.1%6 of 10×0.97

GDPgross domestic product±4.1%10 of 19×0.97

FOMCrate decision±3.8%12 of 24×0.91

PPIproducer prices±3.6%4 of 10×0.84

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.2%7 of 19×0.75

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%5 of 12×0.62

Bar = avg |move| to ±8% · tick = ±4.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.96 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q4 FY26	Aug 11 '26 · confirmed	1.96	—
Q3 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	0.72	—
Q2 FY26	Feb 3 '26 · confirmed	0.60	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod