What move does the options market price into Paychex's report?

Implied ±4.8%, either direction.

How often does Paychex move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PAYXNasdaqServices-Engineering, Accounting, Research, Management

Paychex Inc (PAYX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

119.49

+3.84 · +3.32%

Regular session12:55 ET

Open115.80Volume2.5MMkt cap$41.1BP/E23.71EPS5.04Div yield4.03%

Day114.97 – 119.5798%52-wk82.65 – 126.6984%

PAYX

Paychex Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.0%·×1.22·rich

110.05121.25

straddle ±8.7%

spot 115.65exp Dec 18ATM strike 115ATM straddle 11.80IV 37%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 18

before open · in 44 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−8.77%

vs ±6.2% implied · ×1.42

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 23 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+74.91%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,540 managers

Top fund weight

1.00%

PAYX weight · SCHD

N-PORTAug 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Paychex (PAYX) is expected to report on Dec 18 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.7%
avg realized: ±4.0%

Dec 19 '24Dec 19 '24confirmed±5.3%▲+1.44%×0.27

Mar 26 '25Mar 26 '25confirmed±4.5%▲+4.20%×0.94

Jun 25 '25Jun 25 '25confirmed±5.4%▼−9.40%×1.74

Sep 30 '25Sep 30 '25confirmed±5.1%▼−1.38%×0.27

Q2 FY26Dec 19 '25confirmed±4.8%▼−1.72%×0.36

Q3 FY26Mar 25 '26confirmed±7.6%▲+3.03%×0.40

Q4 FY26Jun 24 '26confirmed±7.0%▼−1.72%×0.25

Q1 FY27Sep 23 '26confirmed±6.2%▼−8.77%×1.42

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q1 FY27±6.2%▼−8.77%×1.42

Q4 FY26±7.0%▼−1.72%×0.25

Q3 FY26±7.6%▲+3.03%×0.40

Q2 FY26±4.8%▼−1.72%×0.36

Sep '25±5.1%▼−1.38%×0.27

Jun '25±5.4%▼−9.40%×1.74

2 older reports

Mar '25±4.5%▲+4.20%×0.94

Dec '24±5.3%▲+1.44%×0.27

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.54OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6,259+1%Nov 2016d1.016,169−1%1.01

report · Dec 18 · before open · est.

4,9050%Dec 1844d9,119−1%

4,445+1%Jan 1572d0.627,2070%0.62

1,0360%Mar 19135d0.402,6140%0.40

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d6,259+1%6,169−1%1.01

report · Dec 18 · before open · est.

Dec 1844d4,9050%9,119−1%0.54

Jan 1572d4,445+1%7,2070%0.62

Mar 19135d1,0360%2,6140%0.40

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.7%

Funds 4

SCHD±0.1%

XLI±0.0%

FTC±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

26.35%as filednet margin · revenue +1.56% QoQ · +5.88% YoY

Revenue

$1.6B+1.56% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.2B+1.03% QoQ

73.62% margin

Operating income

$619M+2.40% QoQ

37.98% margin

Pre-tax income

$565M+1.95% QoQ

Net income

$430M+2.16% QoQ

26.35% margin

Cost of revenue

$430M+3.07% QoQ

Operating expenses

$581M−0.39% QoQ

Other expense

$54M

Tax

$135M+1.27% QoQ

Revenue$1.6B+1.56%

Gross profit

$1.2B+1.03%

73.62% margin

Operating income

$619M+2.40%

37.98% margin

Pre-tax income

$565M+1.95%

Net income

$430M+2.16%

26.35% margin

Cost of revenue

$430M+3.07%

Operating expenses

$581M−0.39%

Other expense

$54M

Tax$135M+1.27%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 12:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.54· ±1.7% vs ±1.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.7%3 of 10×1.54

FOMCrate decision±1.5%10 of 24×1.37

PPIproducer prices±1.4%5 of 10×1.32

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%3 of 10×1.29

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%10 of 19×0.95

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%9 of 19×0.92

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%6 of 12×0.78

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.21 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Sep 23 '26 · confirmed	1.21	—
Q4 FY26	Jun 24 '26 · confirmed	1.17	—
Q3 FY26	Mar 25 '26 · confirmed	1.56	—
Q2 FY26	Dec 19 '25 · confirmed	1.10	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod