What move does the options market price into Outlook Therapeutics's report?

Implied ±46.2%, either direction · provisional.

OTLKNasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (OTLK) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

0.46

pre 0.46 −1.32%

Pre-market18:23 ETdelayed

Open0.46Volume2.5MMkt cap$112.0M

Day0.46 – 0.4832%52-wk0.16 – 2.5413%

OTLK

Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±46.2%implied · straddle

0.250.67

spot 0.46exp Jan 15ATM strike 0.5ATM straddle 0.25IV 148%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 28

before open · in 54 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−14.90%

vs ±23.6% implied · ×0.63

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 14 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

45dCOR · supplierCencora (COR) Raised Guidance and Bought Back $1B. What’s the Catch?

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+202.86%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

67 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

OTLK weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

1 fund

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Outlook Therapeutics (OTLK) is expected to report on Dec 28 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q3 FY26Aug 14 '26confirmed±23.6%▼−14.90%×0.63

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±23.6%▼−14.90%×0.63

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.12OI · 3 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,5840%Nov 2016d0.227,240+1%0.22

report · Dec 28 · before open · est.

3,3540%Jan 1572d27,700+1%

1970%Feb 19107d0.0117,2380%0.01

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,5840%7,240+1%0.22

report · Dec 28 · before open · est.

Jan 1572d3,3540%27,700+1%0.12

Feb 19107d1970%17,2380%0.01

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±46.2%

Funds 1

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−233554.85%as filednet margin · revenue −93.17% QoQ · −99.42% YoY

Revenue$8,700−93.17%

Gross profit−$8,265−95.00%+62.24%

Operating income−$11M−124255.28%+22.93%

Pre-tax income−$20M−356.30%

Net income−$20M−233554.85%−356.30%

Cost of revenue$16,965−88.64%

Operating expenses$11M−22.87%

Tax$0—

Other expense−$10M−199.32%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 18:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPROF ×2.10· ±11.0% vs ±5.2% · 12 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPROFcorporate profits±11.0%5 of 12×2.10

PPIproducer prices±8.4%2 of 10×1.60

GDPgross domestic product±8.0%9 of 19×1.54

CPIconsumer prices±7.9%4 of 10×1.52

PCEpersonal income & outlays±6.1%7 of 19×1.16

NFPjobs report±4.9%6 of 10×0.93

FOMCrate decision±3.9%9 of 24×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±11% · tick = ±5.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.15 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 14 '26 · confirmed	-0.15	—
Q2 FY26	—	-0.05	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.38	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod