What move does the options market price into Nvidia's report?

Implied ±5.7%, either direction.

How often does Nvidia move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NVDANasdaqSemiconductors & Related Devices

Nvidia Corp (NVDA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

204.27

−9.39 · −4.40%

post 205.25 +0.48%

Closed19:59 ET

Open207.64Volume165.6MMkt cap$4.9TP/E25.75EPS7.97Div yield0.25%

Day201.61 – 208.8250%52-wk163.90 – 243.3752%

NVDA

Nvidia Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.0%·×1.43·rich

192.88216.40

straddle ±7.9%

spot 204.64exp Nov 20ATM strike 205ATM straddle 19.00IV 48%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 17

after close · in 17 days

confirmedQ3 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+8.74%

vs ±5.0% implied · ×1.73

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 26 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

16.30%

of Fabrinet revenue

supplierFN 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

6,012 managers

Top fund weight

17.55%

NVDA weight · SMH

N-PORTJun 30 '26

19 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Nvidia (NVDA) reports on Nov 17 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.0%
avg realized: ±4.0%

Nov 20 '24Nov 20 '24confirmed±7.3%▲+0.53%×0.07

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±7.7%▼−8.48%×1.11

May 28 '25May 28 '25confirmed±5.8%▲+3.25%×0.56

Q2 FY26Aug 27 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−0.79%×0.14

Q3 FY26Nov 19 '25confirmed±6.1%▼−3.15%×0.52

Q4 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±5.2%▼−5.46%×1.05

Q1 FY27May 20 '26confirmed±5.0%▼−1.77%×0.35

Q2 FY27Aug 26 '26confirmed±5.0%▲+8.74%×1.73

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY27±5.0%▲+8.74%×1.73

Q1 FY27±5.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 14 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.74OI · 14 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4 nearer expiries

68,352+115%Nov 22d1.7738,526+40%1.77

17,607+45%Nov 44d0.8720,127+35%0.87

164,735+3%Nov 66d1.00165,561+43%1.00

0—Nov 99d—0——

769—Nov 1111d0.741,043—0.74

146,186+12%Nov 1313d1.19123,146+3%1.19

5 later expiries

1.4M+5%Dec 1848d1.091.3M0%1.09

1.8M0%Jan 1576d1.15

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

4 nearer expiries

Nov 22d68,352+115%38,526+40%1.77

Nov 44d17,607+45%20,127+35%0.87

Nov 66d164,735+3%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.9%

Funds 4

SMH±1.4%

XLK±1.2%

VUG±1.0%

IGPT±0.7%

Suppliers 3

COHR±8.4%×1.06

MU±6.6%×0.84

TSM±5.2%×0.65

Customers 3

SERV±7.2%×0.91

DOCN±4.9%×0.62

MRCY±2.6%

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY27

62.03%as filednet margin · revenue +17.90% QoQ · +105.85% YoY

Revenue

$96.2B+17.90% QoQ

Data Center $89.0B

Edge Computing $7.2B

Gross profit

$72.1B+17.96% QoQ

74.98% margin

Operating income

$63.7B+19.05% QoQ

66.24% margin

Pre-tax income

$71.5B+2.29% QoQ

Net income

$59.7B+2.34% QoQ

62.03% margin

Cost of revenue

$24.1B+17.70% QoQ

Operating expenses

$8.4B+10.33% QoQ

R&D $7.1B

SG&A $1.4B

Tax

$11.8B+2.05% QoQ

Other income

$7.8B−52.51% QoQ

Revenue$96.2B+17.90%

Data Center $89.0B · Edge Computing $7.2B

Gross profit

$72.1B+17.96%

74.98% margin

Operating income

$63.7B+19.05%

66.24% margin

Pre-tax income

$71.5B+2.29%

Net income

$59.7B+2.34%

62.03% margin

Cost of revenue

$24.1B+17.70%

Operating expenses

$8.4B+10.33%

R&D $7.1B

SG&A $1.4B

Other income$7.8B−52.51%

Tax$11.8B+2.05%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 26 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.19· ±2.6% vs ±2.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.6%13 of 24×1.19

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%7 of 11×0.95

GDPgross domestic product±1.9%11 of 19×0.90

PPIproducer prices±1.9%5 of 11×0.86

NFPjobs report±1.9%6 of 10×0.86

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%8 of 19×0.83

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%8 of 12×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.46 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY27	Aug 26 '26 · confirmed	2.46	—
Q1 FY27	May 20 '26 · confirmed	2.39	—
Q4 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	1.62	—
Q3 FY26	Nov 19 '25 · confirmed	1.30	—

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod