What move does the options market price into Northrop Grumman's report?

Implied ±10.9%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Northrop Grumman move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NOCNYSESearch, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys

Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

523.09

−27.21 · −4.94%

Regular session12:51 ET

Open537.00Volume788,659Mkt cap$78.2BP/E16.49EPS31.72Div yield1.74%

Day522.53 – 537.004%52-wk470.06 – 767.1218%

NOC

Northrop Grumman Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.9%implied · straddle

490.29610.31

spot 550.30exp Feb 19ATM strike 550ATM straddle 70.60IV 30%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

before open · in 83 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.57%

vs ±6.8% implied · ×0.67

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

84.00%

of NOC revenue · U.S. Government

customerNOC 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−2.76%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,816 managers

Top fund weight

1.48%

NOC weight · GLO

N-PORTJul 31 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Northrop Grumman (NOC) is expected to report on Jan 26 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.7%
avg realized: ±4.9%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±4.5%▲+0.38%×0.08

Apr 22 '25Apr 22 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−12.66%×2.29

Jul 22 '25Jul 22 '25confirmed±5.3%▲+9.41%×1.77

Oct 21 '25Oct 21 '25confirmed±5.7%▼−0.44%×0.08

Jan 27 '26Jan 27 '26confirmed±5.2%▲+2.69%×0.51

Q1 FY26Apr 21 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−6.98%×1.18

Q2 FY26Jul 21 '26confirmed±6.9%▼−2.23%×0.33

Q3 FY26Oct 20 '26confirmed±6.8%▲+4.57%×0.67

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.8%▲+4.57%×0.67

Q2 FY26±6.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 2 close

1.11OI · 5 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,441+1%Nov 2016d1.014,395+4%1.01

3,100+2%Dec 1844d0.953,249+1%0.95

4,5750%Jan 1572d1.393,282+1%1.39

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

9370%Feb 19107d844+9%

1,425+6%Mar 19135d1.101,294+1%1.10

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d4,441+1%4,395+4%1.01

Dec 1844d3,100+2%3,249+1%0.95

Jan 1572d4,5750%3,282+1%1.39

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.9%

Funds 4

GLO±0.2%

XLI±0.1%

VIG±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 2

KTOS±8.5%×0.78

MRCY±5.6%×0.51

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

10.11%as filednet margin · revenue +2.26% QoQ · +6.71% YoY

Revenue

$11.1B+2.26% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.4B+10.89% QoQ

21.15% margin

Operating income

$1.3B+15.78% QoQ

11.41% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.3B+11.13% QoQ

Net income

$1.1B+2.74% QoQ

10.11% margin

Cost of revenue

$8.8B+0.17% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.1B+5.66% QoQ

Tax

$174M+135.14% QoQ

Other income

$29M−59.72% QoQ

Revenue$11.1B+2.26%

Gross profit

$2.4B+10.89%

21.15% margin

Operating income

$1.3B+15.78%

11.41% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.3B+11.13%

Net income

$1.1B+2.74%

10.11% margin

Cost of revenue

$8.8B+0.17%

Operating expenses

$1.1B+5.66%

Other income$29M−59.72%

Tax$174M+135.14%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 12:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.82· ±1.9% vs ±1.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.9%4 of 10×1.82

PPIproducer prices±1.2%5 of 10×1.12

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%8 of 12×1.08

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%3 of 10×1.03

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%11 of 19×0.96

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%12 of 19×0.94

FOMCrate decision±0.8%9 of 24×0.79

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 7.89 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 20 '26 · confirmed	7.89	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 21 '26 · confirmed	7.68	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 21 '26 · confirmed	6.14	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod