What move does the options market price into Microsoft's report?

Implied ±11.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Microsoft move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MSFTNasdaqServices-Prepackaged Software

Microsoft Corp (MSFT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

523.20

−6.94 · −1.31%

post 522.96 −0.05%

Closed19:56 ET

Open525.21Volume35.7MMkt cap$3.9TP/E27.24EPS19.20Div yield0.70%

Day519.42 – 528.6338%52-wk348.54 – 551.1586%

MSFT

Microsoft Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±11.1%implied · straddle

463.83579.99

spot 521.91exp Feb 19ATM strike 520ATM straddle 68.33IV 30%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

after close · in 87 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.16%

vs ±3.8% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

67.00%

of CoreWeave revenue

supplierCRWV 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.90%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

6,254 managers

Top fund weight

8.38%

MSFT weight · XLK

N-PORTJun 30 '26

15 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Microsoft (MSFT) is expected to report on Jan 27 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.3%
avg realized: ±6.3%

Jan 29 '25Jan 29 '25confirmed±3.8%▼−6.18%×1.61

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±3.7%▲+7.63%×2.04

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±3.1%▲+3.95%×1.28

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±4.3%▼−2.92%×0.68

Q2 FY26Jan 28 '26confirmed±4.5%▼−9.99%×2.20

Q3 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±5.5%▼−3.93%×0.72

Q4 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+15.51%×2.67

Q1 FY27Oct 28 '26confirmed±3.8%▼−0.16%×0.04

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q1 FY27±3.8%▼−0.16%×0.04

Q4 FY26±5.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 14 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.56OI · 14 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

9 nearer expiries

16,282+57%Nov 21d0.7820,906+61%0.78

5,308+105%Nov 43d0.4611,586+45%0.46

35,497+17%Nov 65d0.7746,313+15%0.77

1,427—Nov 98d0.741,933—0.74

12,858+8%Nov 1312d0.4627,907+16%0.46

184,188+8%Nov 2019d0.61301,847+13%0.61

3,874+12%Nov 2726d1.043,730+7%1.04

2,699+72%Dec 433d1.282,116+32%1.28

497—Dec 1140d1.44345—1.44

194,145+1%Dec 1847d0.33581,2810%0.33

254,680+1%Jan 1575d0.57449,1500%0.57

report · Jan 27 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

9 nearer expiries

Nov 21d16,282+57%20,906+61%0.78

Nov 43d5,308+105%11,586+45%0.46

Nov 65d35,497+17%46,313

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±11.1%

Funds 4

XLK±0.9%

VUG±0.8%

REVS±0.8%

DIA±0.6%

Suppliers 1

TTWO±4.0%×0.36

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

39.69%as filednet margin · revenue +2.52% QoQ · +18.80% YoY

Revenue

$92.3B+2.52% QoQ

Gross profit

$62.6B+3.43% QoQ

67.79% margin

Operating income

$45.9B+13.08% QoQ

49.76% margin

Pre-tax income

$46.0B+4.33% QoQ

Net income

$36.6B+2.41% QoQ

39.69% margin

Cost of revenue

$29.7B+0.66% QoQ

Operating expenses

$16.6B−16.27% QoQ

R&D $9.0B

Marketing $5.7B

SG&A $1.9B

Tax

$9.3B+12.60% QoQ

Other income

$38M−98.90% QoQ

Revenue$92.3B+2.52%

Gross profit

$62.6B+3.43%

67.79% margin

Operating income

$45.9B+13.08%

49.76% margin

Pre-tax income

$46.0B+4.33%

Net income

$36.6B+2.41%

39.69% margin

Cost of revenue

$29.7B+0.66%

Operating expenses

$16.6B−16.27%

R&D $9.0B

Marketing $5.7B

SG&A $1.9B

Other income$38M−98.90%

Tax$9.3B+12.60%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×2.02· ±2.3% vs ±1.1% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±2.3%12 of 19×2.02

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%12 of 19×2.00

PPIproducer prices±1.5%5 of 11×1.37

FOMCrate decision±1.3%11 of 24×1.16

NFPjobs report±1.2%5 of 10×1.05

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%2 of 11×1.04

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%9 of 12×1.01

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.92 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	4.92	—
Q4 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	4.80	—
Q3 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	4.27	—
Q2 FY26	Jan 28 '26 · confirmed	5.16	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod