What move does the options market price into Morgan Stanley's report?

Implied ±1.6%, either direction.

How often does Morgan Stanley move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 5 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MSNYSESecurity Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies

Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

184.07

−4.78 · −2.53%

post 184.49 +0.23%

Closed18:14 ET

Open188.05Volume7.9MMkt cap$289.5BP/E14.74EPS12.52Div yield2.33%

Day182.48 – 188.9931%52-wk150.24 – 229.5843%

Morgan Stanley

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±1.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.1%·×0.50·cheap

181.44187.16

straddle ±9.9%

spot 184.30exp Jan 15ATM strike 185ATM straddle 21.43IV 32%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 14

before open · in 75 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.75%

vs ±3.4% implied · ×0.81

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 14 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dCBOE · customerCboe Global Markets posts Q3 net income $428.2 million, diluted EPS $4.08
2dTW · customerTradeweb Markets reports Q3 net income $224,905 thousand, revenue $584,545 thousand
3dNLY · customerAnnaly posts net loss of $1,000,698 thousand for quarter; net income $117,590 thousand nine months

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

2,756 managers

Top fund weight

3.30%

MS weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Morgan Stanley (MS) is expected to report on Jan 14 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 5≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.3%
avg realized: ±3.6%

Jan 16 '25Jan 16 '25confirmed—▲+4.03%—

Apr 11 '25Apr 11 '25confirmed—▲+1.44%—

Jul 16 '25Jul 16 '25confirmed—▼−1.27%—

Q3 FY25Oct 15 '25confirmed±3.6%▲+4.71%×1.31

Jan 15 '26Jan 15 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+5.78%×1.89

Q1 FY26Apr 15 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+4.52%×1.58

Q2 FY26Jul 15 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+0.39%×0.10

Oct 14 '26Oct 14 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−2.75%×0.81

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±3.4%▼−2.75%×0.81

Q2 FY26±3.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.48OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

3,503+91%Nov 66d0.675,266+16%0.67

1,961+11%Nov 1313d1.501,305+20%1.50

28,857+3%Nov 2020d0.8434,169−2%0.84

723+246%Nov 2727d0.84864+70%0.84

70+63%Dec 434d2.9224+71%2.92

3—Dec 1141d0.2512—0.25

47,349+2%Dec 1848d1.8825,181−6%1.88

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 66d3,503+91%5,266+16%0.67

Nov 1313d1,961+11%1,305+20%1.50

Nov 2020d28,857+3%34,169

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.9%

Funds 4

XLF±0.3%

VIG±0.1%

FTC±0.1%

VTV±0.1%

Suppliers 1

AHRT±2.9%×0.30

Customers 1

TPR±5.1%×0.52

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

26.48%as filednet margin · revenue +3.73% QoQ · +27.13% YoY

Revenue$21.3B+3.73%

Pre-tax income$7.3B+4.81%

Net income$5.7B26.48%+0.27%

Tax$1.7B+23.45%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.25· ±1.6% vs ±1.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.6%7 of 10×1.25

FOMCrate decision±1.4%15 of 24×1.10

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%6 of 10×0.98

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%12 of 19×0.93

NFPjobs report±1.2%6 of 10×0.93

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%13 of 19×0.89

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%7 of 12×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.46 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 15 '26 · confirmed	3.46	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 15 '26 · confirmed	3.43	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 15 '25 · confirmed	2.80	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod