What move does the options market price into Morgan Stanley's report?

Implied ±2.7%, either direction.

How often does Morgan Stanley move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 5 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MSNYSESecurity Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies

Morgan Stanley (MS) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

185.91

+0.18 · +0.10%

post 185.85 −0.03%

Closed16:19 ET

Open185.25Volume5.2MMkt cap$291.7BP/E14.84EPS12.52Div yield2.32%

Day184.50 – 187.9539%52-wk150.24 – 229.5845%

Morgan Stanley

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.1%·×0.87·fair

181.05191.13

straddle ±9.9%

spot 186.09exp Jan 15ATM strike 185ATM straddle 21.58IV 33%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 14

before open · in 71 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.75%

vs ±3.4% implied · ×0.81

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 14 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

5hCVS · customerStocks making the biggest moves after hours: Arista Networks, CVS Health, AMD, Super Micro, Skyworks Solutions & more
1dAHRT · supplierAH Realty Trust posts Q3 FFO, as adjusted $0.16; raises 2026 FFO, as adjusted to $0.57 to $0.59
4dCBOE · customerCboe Global Markets posts Q3 net income $428.2 million, diluted EPS $4.08

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

2,756 managers

Top fund weight

3.30%

MS weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Morgan Stanley (MS) is expected to report on Jan 14 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 5≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.3%
avg realized: ±3.6%

Jan 16 '25Jan 16 '25confirmed—▲+4.03%—

Apr 11 '25Apr 11 '25confirmed—▲+1.44%—

Jul 16 '25Jul 16 '25confirmed—▼−1.27%—

Q3 FY25Oct 15 '25confirmed±3.6%▲+4.71%×1.31

Jan 15 '26Jan 15 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+5.78%×1.89

Q1 FY26Apr 15 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+4.52%×1.58

Q2 FY26Jul 15 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+0.39%×0.10

Oct 14 '26Oct 14 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−2.75%×0.81

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±3.4%▼−2.75%×0.81

Q2 FY26±3.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.48OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

3,503+91%Nov 62d0.675,266+16%0.67

1,961+11%Nov 139d1.501,305+20%1.50

28,857+3%Nov 2016d0.8434,169−2%0.84

723+246%Nov 2723d0.84864+70%0.84

70+63%Dec 430d2.9224+71%2.92

3—Dec 1137d0.2512—0.25

47,349+2%Dec 1844d1.8825,181−6%1.88

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 62d3,503+91%5,266+16%0.67

Nov 139d1,961+11%1,305+20%1.50

Nov 2016d28,857+3%34,169

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.9%

Funds 4

XLF±0.3%

VIG±0.1%

FTC±0.1%

VTV±0.1%

Suppliers 1

AHRT±2.9%×0.30

Customers 1

TPR±5.1%×0.52

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

26.48%as filednet margin · revenue +3.73% QoQ · +27.13% YoY

Revenue$21.3B+3.73%

Pre-tax income$7.3B+4.81%

Net income$5.7B26.48%+0.27%

Tax$1.7B+23.45%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.16· ±1.5% vs ±1.3% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.5%8 of 11×1.16

FOMCrate decision±1.5%15 of 24×1.15

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%6 of 11×1.09

NFPjobs report±1.2%6 of 10×0.93

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%12 of 20×0.89

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%13 of 20×0.85

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%7 of 12×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.46 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 15 '26 · confirmed	3.46	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 15 '26 · confirmed	3.43	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 15 '25 · confirmed	2.80	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod