What move does the options market price into Moderna's report?

Implied ±2.3%, either direction.

How often does Moderna move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MRNANasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

221.40

Closed19:54 ET

Open219.69Volume9.0MMkt cap$88.5BEPS-7.98

Day218.65 – 224.0951%52-wk22.28 – 254.4886%

MRNA

Moderna, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.0%·×0.58·cheap

216.64226.80

straddle ±9.2%

spot 221.72exp Nov 6ATM strike 222.5ATM straddle 23.88IV 97%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.35%

vs ±9.8% implied · ×0.55

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Jul 31 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

22.00%

of Personalis revenue

supplierPSNL 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.74%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

795 managers

Top fund weight

1.41%

MRNA weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Moderna (MRNA) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.2%
avg realized: ±4.0%

Feb 14 '25Feb 14 '25confirmed±8.4%▲+3.35%×0.40

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±9.1%▼−5.29%×0.58

Aug 1 '25Aug 1 '25confirmed±8.8%▼−6.61%×0.75

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±7.5%▲+3.27%×0.44

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±7.6%▼−1.34%×0.18

Feb 13 '26Feb 13 '26confirmed±7.7%▲+5.29%×0.69

Q1 FY26May 1 '26confirmed±6.9%▼−1.24%×0.18

Q2 FY26Jul 31 '26confirmed±9.8%▼−5.35%×0.55

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±9.8%▼−5.35%×0.55

Q1 FY26±6.9%▼−1.24%×0.18

Feb '26±7.7%▲+5.29%×0.69

Jan '26±7.6%▼−1.34%×0.18

Nov '25±7.5%▲+3.27%×0.44

Aug '25±8.8%▼−6.61%×0.75

2 older reports

May '25±9.1%▼−5.29%×0.58

Feb '25±8.4%▲+3.35%×0.40

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.54OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

14,922+50%Nov 65d27,881+226%

6,505+35%Nov 1312d1.733,758+41%1.73

89,4240%Nov 2019d1.7750,620+4%1.77

6,119+780%Nov 2726d1.933,171+300%1.93

2,185+9%Dec 433d2.111,038+18%2.11

6 later expiries

38—Dec 1140d5.437—5.43

71,547+3%Dec 1847d1.2557,338+1%1.25

138,5610%Jan 1575d1.8375,683−1%1.83

2,174+35%Feb 19110d0.972,231+13%0.97

35,606+2%Mar 19138d1.6821,195+1%1.68

8,503+10%Apr 16166d1.266,740+5%1.26

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d14,922+50%27,881+226%0.54

Nov 1312d6,505+35%3,758+41%1.73

Nov 2019d89,4240%50,620+4%1.77

Nov 2726d6,119+780%3,171+300%1.93

Dec 433d2,185+9%1,038+18%2.11

6 later expiries

Dec 1140d38—7—5.43

Dec 1847d71,547+3%57,338+1%1.25

Jan 1575d138,5610%75,683−1%1.83

Feb 19110d2,174+35%2,231+13%0.97

Mar 19138d35,606+2%21,195+1%1.68

Apr 16166d8,503+10%6,740+5%1.26

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.2%

Funds 4

XBI±0.1%

XLV±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

FB±0.0%

Customers 1

MRK±0.7%×0.08

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−539.31%as filednet margin · revenue −62.72% QoQ · +2.11% YoY

Revenue$145M−62.72%

Gross profit$52M35.86%+109.19%

Operating income−$815M−562.07%+41.28%

Pre-tax income−$767M+42.50%

Net income−$782M−539.31%+41.77%

Cost of revenue$93M−90.26%

Operating expenses$867M+5.47%

Tax$15M+66.67%

Other income$48M−11.11%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.52· ±5.0% vs ±3.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±5.0%5 of 10×1.52

CPIconsumer prices±4.2%8 of 10×1.26

PPIproducer prices±3.4%6 of 10×1.04

CPROFcorporate profits±3.4%4 of 12×1.03

GDPgross domestic product±3.2%9 of 19×0.96

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.0%6 of 19×0.90

FOMCrate decision±2.5%8 of 24×0.76

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±3.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -1.97 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 31 '26 · confirmed	-1.97	—
Q1 FY26	May 1 '26 · confirmed	-3.40	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod