What move does the options market price into Medifast's report?

Implied ±18.1%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Medifast move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MEDNYSEMiscellaneous Food Preparations & Kindred Products

Medifast Inc (MED) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

12.58

pre 12.58 +0.43%

Pre-market16:00 ETdelayed

Open12.65Volume123,785Mkt cap$140.8MEPS-3.69

Day12.58 – 12.810%52-wk9.22 – 13.4580%

MED

Medifast Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±18.1%implied · straddle

10.3214.86

spot 12.59exp Mar 19ATM strike 12.5ATM straddle 2.68IV 44%

Nov 3 closeprovisionalthin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 16

after close · in 104 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.02%

vs ±9.1% implied · ×0.22

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 26 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

−14.36%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

113 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

MED weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

1 fund

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Medifast (MED) is expected to report on Feb 16 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.2%
avg realized: ±9.5%

Feb 18 '25Feb 18 '25confirmed±10.4%▼−11.41%×1.10

Apr 28 '25Apr 28 '25confirmed±11.5%▼−0.64%×0.06

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±9.3%▼−3.26%×0.35

Nov 3 '25Nov 3 '25confirmed±9.0%▲+0.84%×0.09

Feb 17 '26Feb 17 '26confirmed±8.1%▼−0.83%×0.10

Q1 FY26May 4 '26confirmed±14.3%▲+22.48%×1.58

Q2 FY26Aug 3 '26confirmed±10.1%▲+34.29%×3.39

Q3 FY26Oct 26 '26confirmed±9.1%▲+2.02%×0.22

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.1%▲+2.02%×0.22

Q2 FY26±10.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 20 close

0.13OI · 3 expiries · Oct 20 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,5680%Nov 2016d0.246,4720%0.24

6270%Dec 1844d0.144,4480%0.14

report · Feb 16 · after close · est.

470%Mar 19135d3490%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,5680%6,4720%0.24

Dec 1844d6270%4,4480%0.14

report · Feb 16 · after close · est.

Mar 19135d470%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±18.1%

Funds 1

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−24.30%as filednet margin · revenue −5.68% QoQ · −19.42% YoY

Revenue$72M−5.68%

Gross profit$50M69.45%−6.29%

Operating income−$19M−26.87%−347.38%

Pre-tax income−$18M−496.29%

Net income−$18M−24.30%−464.87%

Cost of revenue$22M−4.26%

Operating expenses$69M+20.23%

Tax−$324,000−397.25%

Other income$2M+14.00%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.18· ±2.5% vs ±2.1% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.5%7 of 24×1.18

GDPgross domestic product±1.9%9 of 19×0.88

NFPjobs report±1.7%5 of 10×0.80

CPROFcorporate profits±1.7%5 of 12×0.78

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%2 of 10×0.75

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%12 of 19×0.63

PPIproducer prices±1.2%5 of 10×0.56

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -1.57 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 26 '26 · confirmed	-1.57	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 3 '26 · confirmed	-0.28	—
Q1 FY26	May 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.19	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod