What move does the options market price into McDonald's's report?

Implied ±2.6%, either direction.

How often does McDonald's move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MCDNYSERetail-Eating Places

McDonald's Corp (MCD) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

258.06

+0.68 · +0.26%

post 258.27 +0.08%

Closed19:51 ET

Open260.09Volume6.5MMkt cap$182.7BP/E20.90EPS12.36Div yield2.88%

Day257.45 – 261.4121%52-wk229.20 – 335.1827%

MCD

McDonald's Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.1%·×1.24·rich

251.51264.73

straddle ±3.3%

spot 258.12exp Nov 6ATM strike 257.5ATM straddle 9.95IV 35%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

before open · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.17%

vs ±3.3% implied · ×0.35

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

21.00%

of Par Technology revenue

supplierPAR 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.23%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

3,473 managers

Top fund weight

4.15%

MCD weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

McDonald's (MCD) is expected to report on Nov 4 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±2.9%
avg realized: ±2.1%

Oct 29 '24Oct 29 '24confirmed±3.0%▼−0.60%×0.20

Feb 10 '25Feb 10 '25confirmed±3.1%▲+4.80%×1.55

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±2.7%▼−1.88%×0.69

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±2.9%▲+2.98%×1.04

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±2.8%▲+2.16%×0.78

Feb 11 '26Feb 11 '26confirmed±2.7%▲+2.74%×1.01

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±2.9%▼−0.14%×0.05

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±3.3%▲+1.17%×0.35

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q2 FY26±3.3%▲+1.17%×0.35

Q1 FY26±2.9%▼−0.14%×0.05

Feb '26±2.7%▲+2.74%×1.01

Q3 FY25±2.8%▲+2.16%×0.78

Aug '25±2.9%▲+2.98%×1.04

May '25±2.7%▼−1.88%×0.69

2 older reports

Feb '25±3.1%▲+4.80%×1.55

Oct '24±3.0%▼−0.60%×0.20

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.48OI · 7 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,591+20%Nov 66d7,482+20%

2,099+5%Nov 1313d0.842,513+33%0.84

24,368+3%Nov 2020d0.6239,276+1%0.62

1,068+25%Nov 2727d0.851,261+39%0.85

23,976+4%Dec 1848d0.6934,8270%0.69

2 later expiries

23,5550%Jan 1576d0.4354,498+2%0.43

13,169+2%Mar 19139d0.5822,5980%0.58

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d3,591+20%7,482+20%0.48

Nov 1313d2,099+5%2,513+33%0.84

Nov 2020d24,368+3%39,276+1%0.62

Nov 2727d1,068+25%1,261+39%0.85

Dec 1848d23,976+4%34,8270%0.69

2 later expiries

Jan 1576d23,5550%54,498+2%0.43

Mar 19139d13,169+2%22,5980%0.58

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±3.3%

Funds 4

XLY±0.1%

DIA±0.1%

JEPI±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

33.27%as filednet margin · revenue +8.93% QoQ · +3.74% YoY

Revenue

$7.1B+8.93% QoQ

Gross profit

$4.3B+12.39% QoQ

60.30% margin

Operating income

$3.3B+13.04% QoQ

47.02% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.9B+15.50% QoQ

Net income

$2.4B+19.11% QoQ

33.27% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B+4.06% QoQ

Operating expenses

$943M+10.16% QoQ

SG&A $869M

Depreciation $111M

Other expense

$415M

Tax

$574M+2.68% QoQ

Revenue$7.1B+8.93%

Gross profit

$4.3B+12.39%

60.30% margin

Operating income

$3.3B+13.04%

47.02% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.9B+15.50%

Net income

$2.4B+19.11%

33.27% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B+4.06%

Operating expenses

$943M+10.16%

SG&A $869M

Depreciation $111M

Other expense

$415M

Tax$574M+2.68%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.71· ±1.5% vs ±0.9% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.5%4 of 10×1.71

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%11 of 20×1.38

PPIproducer prices±1.1%4 of 11×1.27

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%11 of 20×1.17

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%4 of 12×1.01

FOMCrate decision±0.8%10 of 25×0.93

CPIconsumer prices±0.7%6 of 11×0.85

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.32 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	3.32	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	2.78	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	3.18	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod