What move does the options market price into Lumentum's report?

Implied ±2.0%, either direction.

How often does Lumentum move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

LITENasdaqCommunications Equipment, NEC

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

679.62

pre 668.00 −1.79%

Pre-market07:20 ETdelayed

Open695.01Volume15.3MMkt cap$61.4BEPS-92.96

Day667.26 – 697.002%52-wk184.20 – 1,143.0050%

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.8%·×0.21·cheap

666.41693.91

straddle ±23.9%

spot 680.16exp Feb 19ATM strike 680ATM straddle 191.55IV 65%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 2

after close · in 90 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−18.59%

vs ±9.8% implied · ×1.91

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 2 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

26.60%

of LITE revenue · Customer A

customerLITE 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+8.36%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,326 managers

Top fund weight

2.11%

LITE weight · NASA

N-PORTAug 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Lumentum (LITE) is expected to report on Feb 2 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.0%
avg realized: ±9.8%

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±12.5%▼−7.31%×0.59

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±11.9%▲+2.83%×0.24

Aug 12 '25Aug 12 '25confirmed±10.1%▲+0.48%×0.05

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±11.0%▲+23.57%×2.13

Q2 FY26Feb 3 '26confirmed±13.9%▲+7.00%×0.50

Q3 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±9.9%▼−5.06%×0.51

Q4 FY26Aug 11 '26confirmed±9.3%▲+13.63%×1.47

Q1 FY27Nov 2 '26confirmed±9.8%▼−18.59%×1.91

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q1 FY27±9.8%▼−18.59%×1.91

Q4 FY26±9.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Nov 3 close

1.72OI · 11 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

17,190+52%Nov 62d0.6924,860+77%0.69

6,218+13%Nov 139d0.679,340+106%0.67

22,162+2%Nov 2016d1.5614,166+10%1.56

2,204+3%Nov 2723d0.822,688+13%0.82

504+83%Dec 430d1.14444+17%1.14

538+249%Dec 1137d4.41122+713%4.41

19,103+20%Dec 1844d1.4513,136+19%1.45

36,962+2%Jan 1572d1.5324,111+2%1.53

report · Feb 2 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 62d17,190+52%24,860+77%0.69

Nov 139d6,218+13%9,340+106%0.67

Nov 2016d22,162+2%14,166

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±23.9%

Funds 4

NASA±0.5%

FTC±0.2%

XLK±0.1%

QQQ±0.1%

Suppliers 1

FN±13.5%×0.56

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

28.54%as filednet margin · revenue +25.47% QoQ · +136.53% YoY

Revenue

$1.3B+25.47% QoQ

Gross profit

$644M+34.93% QoQ

51.01% margin

Operating income

$360M+28.82% QoQ

28.50% margin

Pre-tax income

$370M+104.96% QoQ

Net income

$360M+105.03% QoQ

28.54% margin

Cost of revenue

$619M+16.94% QoQ

Operating expenses

$284M+43.54% QoQ

R&D $192M

SG&A $99M

Tax

$10M+103.37% QoQ

Other income

$11M+100.14% QoQ

Revenue$1.3B+25.47%

Gross profit

$644M+34.93%

51.01% margin

Operating income

$360M+28.82%

28.50% margin

Pre-tax income

$370M+104.96%

Net income

$360M+105.03%

28.54% margin

Cost of revenue

$619M+16.94%

Operating expenses

$284M+43.54%

R&D $192M

SG&A $99M

Other income$11M+100.14%

Tax$10M+103.37%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 26 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 07:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.64· ±5.6% vs ±3.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±5.6%6 of 10×1.64

PPIproducer prices±5.1%5 of 10×1.50

CPIconsumer prices±4.6%6 of 10×1.34

GDPgross domestic product±4.1%11 of 19×1.20

FOMCrate decision±3.7%16 of 24×1.09

CPROFcorporate profits±3.1%5 of 12×0.92

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.0%12 of 19×0.87

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±3.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.54 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Nov 2 '26 · confirmed	3.54	—
Q4 FY26	Aug 11 '26 · confirmed	-95.40	—
Q3 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	1.50	—
Q2 FY26	Feb 3 '26 · confirmed	0.89	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod