What move does the options market price into JPMorgan Chase's report?

Implied ±7.6%, either direction · provisional.

How often does JPMorgan Chase move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 5 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

JPMNYSENational Commercial Banks

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

337.50

Closed19:51 ET

Open344.10Volume7.9MMkt cap$895.9BP/E14.44EPS23.38Div yield1.82%

Day335.43 – 345.8220%52-wk275.06 – 364.6870%

JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±7.6%implied · straddle

311.58362.50

spot 337.04exp Jan 15ATM strike 340ATM straddle 29.95IV 24%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 12

before open · in 73 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.86%

vs ±2.7% implied · ×0.32

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 13 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dWD · supplierWalker & Dunlop raises revolving credit to $150 million, letter of credit capacity to $75 million
2dMKTX · customerMarketAxess approves merger agreement, 28,241,324 votes for
2dH · supplierHyatt posts net income of $58 million for quarter, $206 million for nine months

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.33%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

5,162 managers

Top fund weight

11.55%

JPM weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is expected to report on Jan 12 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 5≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.0%
avg realized: ±2.1%

Jan 15 '25Jan 15 '25confirmed—▲+1.97%—

Apr 11 '25Apr 11 '25confirmed—▲+4.00%—

Jul 15 '25Jul 15 '25confirmed—▼−0.74%—

Q3 FY25Oct 14 '25confirmed±3.5%▼−1.91%×0.55

Jan 13 '26Jan 13 '26confirmed±3.0%▼−4.19%×1.39

Q1 FY26Apr 14 '26confirmed±2.8%▼−0.82%×0.29

Q2 FY26Jul 14 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+2.50%×0.87

Oct 13 '26Oct 13 '26confirmed±2.7%▼−0.86%×0.32

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Oct '26±2.7%▼−0.86%×0.32

Q2 FY26±2.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 26 close

1.23OI · 7 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3 nearer expiries

4,446+7%Nov 66d1.173,807+4%1.17

2,117−4%Nov 1313d0.464,567+1%0.46

48,375+2%Nov 2020d1.0545,965+1%1.05

1,198+23%Nov 2727d0.303,995+7%0.30

45,986+3%Dec 1848d0.9250,095+2%0.92

report · Jan 12 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

3 nearer expiries

Nov 66d4,446+7%3,807+4%1.17

Nov 1313d2,117−4%4,567+1%0.46

Nov 2020d48,375+2%45,965

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.6%

Funds 4

XLF±0.9%

VIG±0.3%

DIA±0.3%

VTV±0.2%

Suppliers 1

GPGI±5.4%×0.71

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

36.89%as filednet margin · revenue +15.07% QoQ · +27.69% YoY

Revenue$57.3B+15.07%

Pre-tax income$27.5B+34.36%

Net income$21.2B36.89%+28.26%

Tax$6.4B+59.62%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.21· ±1.2% vs ±1.0% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%5 of 11×1.21

FOMCrate decision±1.2%13 of 24×1.19

NFPjobs report±0.9%3 of 10×0.87

PPIproducer prices±0.8%4 of 11×0.82

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.8%9 of 19×0.78

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%8 of 12×0.70

GDPgross domestic product±0.7%14 of 19×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 7.70 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 14 '26 · confirmed	7.70	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 14 '26 · confirmed	5.94	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 14 '25 · confirmed	5.07	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod