What move does the options market price into Intuitive Surgical's report?

Implied ±13.6%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Intuitive Surgical move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ISRGNasdaqOrthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies

Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

432.04

Closed19:33 ET

Open451.00Volume3.5MMkt cap$149.8BP/E51.74EPS8.35

Day431.52 – 455.942%52-wk328.57 – 603.8838%

ISRG

Intuitive Surgical Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.6%implied · straddle

373.45490.57

spot 432.01exp Feb 19ATM strike 430ATM straddle 68.90IV 36%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 21

after close · in 82 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.26%

vs ±6.3% implied · ×0.36

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

24.30%

of UFP Technologies revenue

supplierUFPT 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.91%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

2,256 managers

Top fund weight

2.45%

ISRG weight · XLV

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is expected to report on Jan 21 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.9%
avg realized: ±5.5%

Apr 22 '25Apr 22 '25confirmed±6.8%▲+1.92%×0.28

Jul 22 '25Jul 22 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−1.77%×0.31

Oct 21 '25Oct 21 '25confirmed±6.4%▲+13.89%×2.16

Jan 14 '26Jan 14 '26confirmed±4.8%▼−2.68%×0.56

Jan 22 '26Jan 22 '26confirmed±4.3%▼−0.35%×0.08

Q1 FY26Apr 21 '26confirmed±6.3%▲+7.16%×1.14

Q2 FY26Jul 16 '26confirmed±6.5%▼−14.15%×2.18

Q3 FY26Oct 20 '26confirmed±6.3%▼−2.26%×0.36

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.3%▼−2.26%×0.36

Q2 FY26±6.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.26OI · 10 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

937+38%Nov 66d0.691,358+20%0.69

843−5%Nov 1313d1.25676+16%1.25

10,004+2%Nov 2020d0.9610,403+1%0.96

424+4%Nov 2727d4.20101+7%4.20

60+500%Dec 434d0.8868+143%0.88

7,998+9%Dec 1848d0.6312,790+27%0.63

9,972+1%Jan 1576d0.7812,833+3%0.78

report · Jan 21 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 66d937+38%1,358+20%0.69

Nov 1313d843−5%676+16%1.25

Nov 2020d10,004+2%10,403

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.6%

Funds 4

XLV±0.3%

IGPT±0.3%

QQQ±0.1%

JEPI±0.1%

Suppliers 1

UFPT±5.2%×0.39

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

17.20%as filednet margin · revenue +5.41% QoQ · +21.70% YoY

Revenue

$3.0B+5.41% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.1B+6.32% QoQ

68.37% margin

Operating income

$593M−39.03% QoQ

19.44% margin

Pre-tax income

$668M−36.62% QoQ

Net income

$524M−36.30% QoQ

17.20% margin

Cost of revenue

$964M+3.49% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.5B+50.91% QoQ

SG&A $633M

Other operating $450M

R&D $408M

Tax

$144M−37.77% QoQ

Other income

$76M−8.34% QoQ

Revenue$3.0B+5.41%

Gross profit

$2.1B+6.32%

68.37% margin

Operating income

$593M−39.03%

19.44% margin

Pre-tax income

$668M−36.62%

Net income

$524M−36.30%

17.20% margin

Cost of revenue

$964M+3.49%

Operating expenses

$1.5B+50.91%

SG&A $633M

Other operating $450M

R&D $408M

Other income$76M−8.34%

Tax$144M−37.77%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.52· ±2.1% vs ±1.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%6 of 11×1.52

NFPjobs report±1.5%5 of 10×1.07

FOMCrate decision±1.4%11 of 25×1.03

PPIproducer prices±1.2%6 of 11×0.91

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%9 of 20×0.78

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%11 of 20×0.70

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%5 of 12×0.68

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.49 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 20 '26 · confirmed	1.49	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 16 '26 · confirmed	2.29	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 21 '26 · confirmed	2.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod