What move does the options market price into Imperial Oil's report?

Implied ±12.1%, either direction · provisional.

IMONYSEPetroleum Refining

Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

130.77

−0.10 · −0.08%

post 138.27 +5.74%

Closed15:59 ET

Open127.01Volume1.0MMkt cap$66.8BP/E22.34EPS6.19Div yield1.74%

Day127.01 – 138.26100%52-wk82.02 – 138.52100%

IMO

Imperial Oil Ltd

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.1%implied · straddle

121.36154.84

spot 138.10exp Feb 19ATM strike 140ATM straddle 19.70IV 32%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 29

before open · in 90 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.52%

vs ±5.7% implied · ×0.96

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 30 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dXOM · supplierChevron and Exxon hit all-time highs as refining profits soar in reaction to Iran and Ukraine wars

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+8.35%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

409 managers

Top fund weight

0.60%

IMO weight · EWC

N-PORTAug 31 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Imperial Oil (IMO) is expected to report on Jan 29 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 31 '26confirmed—▲+0.60%—

Oct 30 '26Oct 30 '26confirmed±5.7%▲+5.52%×0.96

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±5.7%▲+5.52%×0.96

Q2 FY26—▲+0.60%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.83OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

374−3%Nov 2020d0.399650%0.39

460%Dec 1848d0.133560%0.13

5—Jan 1576d0.2917—0.29

report · Jan 29 · before open · est.

2950%Feb 19111d1610%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d374−3%9650%0.39

Dec 1848d460%3560%0.13

Jan 1576d5—17—0.29

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.1%

Funds 2

EWC±0.1%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

13.63%as filednet margin · revenue +26.76% QoQ · +37.11% YoY

Revenue

$11.3B+26.76% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.5B+40.74% QoQ

22.43% margin

Operating income

$2.0B+126.72% QoQ

17.91% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.0B+128.02% QoQ

Net income

$1.5B+128.85% QoQ

13.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$8.8B+23.23% QoQ

Operating expenses

$511M−43.76% QoQ

Depreciation $360M

SG&A $101M

Other operating $49M

Other expense

$11M

Tax

$472M+125.38% QoQ

Revenue$11.3B+26.76%

Gross profit

$2.5B+40.74%

22.43% margin

Operating income

$2.0B+126.72%

17.91% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.0B+128.02%

Net income

$1.5B+128.85%

13.63% margin

Cost of revenue

$8.8B+23.23%

Operating expenses

$511M−43.76%

Depreciation $360M

SG&A $101M

Other operating $49M

Other expense

$11M

Tax$472M+125.38%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.65· ±2.3% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.3%5 of 10×1.65

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%8 of 11×1.12

FOMCrate decision±1.5%14 of 25×1.10

PPIproducer prices±1.5%6 of 11×1.06

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%6 of 20×1.00

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%9 of 20×0.78

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%6 of 12×0.62

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.18 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 31 '26 · confirmed	3.18	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.39	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod