What move does the options market price into International Business Machines's report?

Implied ±13.9%, either direction · provisional.

How often does International Business Machines move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

IBMNYSEComputer & office Equipment

International Business Machines Corp (IBM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

253.25

−4.56 · −1.77%

post 252.60 −0.26%

Closed19:30 ET

Open259.12Volume5.7MMkt cap$243.7BP/E21.21EPS11.91Div yield2.61%

Day251.97 – 259.329%52-wk197.77 – 330.0941%

IBM

International Business Machines Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.9%implied · straddle

217.36287.66

spot 252.51exp Feb 19ATM strike 255ATM straddle 41.35IV 38%

Nov 2 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

after close · in 86 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.26%

vs ±6.4% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dCLS · supplierCelestica to repurchase up to 3,132,127 common shares under TSX NCIB
4dCUZ · supplierCousins Properties posts Q3 net income available to common stockholders $17,000 thousand, EPS $0.10
4dJKHY · customerJack Henry posts Q1 deconversion revenue of $17.9 million, sets FY27 estimate at $30.0 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

3,651 managers

Top fund weight

2.53%

IBM weight · DIA

N-PORTJul 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

International Business Machines (IBM) is expected to report on Jan 27 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.5%
avg realized: ±6.8%

Apr 23 '25Apr 23 '25confirmed±5.9%▼−6.58%×1.11

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±5.4%▼−7.62%×1.42

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−0.87%×0.15

Jan 28 '26Jan 28 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+5.13%×0.89

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±5.6%▼−8.25%×1.47

Q2 FY26Jul 14 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−25.21%×7.51

Jul 22 '26Jul 22 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+0.43%×0.07

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed±6.4%▲+0.26%×0.04

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.4%▲+0.26%×0.04

Jul '26±5.8%▲+0.43%×0.07

Q2 FY26±3.4%▼−25.21%×7.51

Q1 FY26±5.6%▼−8.25%×1.47

Jan '26±5.8%▲+5.13%×0.89

Oct '25±5.8%▼−0.87%×0.15

2 older reports

Jul '25±5.4%▼−7.62%×1.42

Apr '25±5.9%▼−6.58%×1.11

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.03OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

3,484+4%Nov 64d0.457,790+28%0.45

2,065+10%Nov 1311d0.722,868+12%0.72

29,105+1%Nov 2018d0.5750,637+3%0.57

1,105+132%Nov 2725d0.701,587+396%0.70

326+12%Dec 432d0.80407+8%0.80

156—Dec 1139d0.67234—0.67

32,687+5%Dec 1846d0.7543,588+9%0.75

54,8030%Jan 1574d0.7473,9070%0.74

report · Jan 27 · after close · est.

5,2600%Feb 19109d5,084+2%

19,9320%Mar 19137d1.0419,148+1%1.04

3,504+2%Apr 16165d1.881,8600%1.88

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 64d3,484+4%7,790+28%0.45

Nov 1311d2,065+10%2,868+12%0.72

Nov 2018d29,105+1%50,637+3%0.57

Nov 2725d1,105+132%1,587+396%0.70

Dec 432d326+12%407+8%0.80

Dec 1139d156—234—0.67

Dec 1846d32,687+5%43,588+9%0.75

Jan 1574d54,8030%73,9070%0.74

report · Jan 27 · after close · est.

Feb 19109d5,2600%5,084+2%1.03

Mar 19137d19,9320%19,148+1%1.04

Apr 16165d3,504+2%1,8600%1.88

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.9%

Funds 4

DIA±0.4%

XLK±0.2%

VTV±0.1%

VIG±0.1%

Customers 2

ACIW±4.8%×0.34

JKHY±2.9%×0.21

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

12.80%as filednet margin · revenue −0.34% QoQ · +4.73% YoY

Revenue

$17.1B−0.34% QoQ

Gross profit

$9.7B−1.95% QoQ

56.80% margin

Operating income

$3.0B+0.78% QoQ

17.48% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.5B+0.73% QoQ

Net income

$2.2B+1.15% QoQ

12.80% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.4B+1.85% QoQ

Operating expenses

$6.7B−3.11% QoQ

SG&A $4.6B

R&D $2.2B

Other expense

$491M

Tax

$298M−4.79% QoQ

Revenue$17.1B−0.34%

Gross profit

$9.7B−1.95%

56.80% margin

Operating income

$3.0B+0.78%

17.48% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.5B+0.73%

Net income

$2.2B+1.15%

12.80% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.4B+1.85%

Operating expenses

$6.7B−3.11%

SG&A $4.6B

R&D $2.2B

Other expense

$491M

Tax$298M−4.79%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×2.89· ±3.9% vs ±1.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.9%2 of 11×2.89

NFPjobs report±2.0%6 of 10×1.43

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%9 of 19×1.43

PPIproducer prices±1.6%5 of 11×1.18

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%5 of 12×1.13

FOMCrate decision±1.3%13 of 25×0.94

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%6 of 19×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.30 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	2.30	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 14 '26 · confirmed	2.27	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	1.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod