What move does the options market price into International Business Machines's report?

Implied ±13.8%, either direction · provisional.

How often does International Business Machines move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

IBMNYSEComputer & office Equipment

International Business Machines Corp (IBM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

257.07

−1.21 · −0.47%

post 257.45 +0.15%

Closed19:52 ET

Open255.86Volume5.7MMkt cap$243.7BP/E21.62EPS11.91Div yield2.61%

Day255.60 – 259.3050%52-wk197.77 – 330.0945%

IBM

International Business Machines Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±13.8%implied · straddle

222.28293.34

spot 257.81exp Feb 19ATM strike 260ATM straddle 41.80IV 37%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

after close · in 87 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.26%

vs ±6.4% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dCLS · supplierCelestica to repurchase up to 3,132,127 common shares under TSX NCIB
2dCUZ · supplierCousins Properties posts Q3 net income available to common stockholders $17,000 thousand, EPS $0.10
2dJKHY · customerJack Henry posts Q1 deconversion revenue of $17.9 million, sets FY27 estimate at $30.0 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

3,651 managers

Top fund weight

2.53%

IBM weight · DIA

N-PORTJul 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

International Business Machines (IBM) is expected to report on Jan 27 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.5%
avg realized: ±6.8%

Apr 23 '25Apr 23 '25confirmed±5.9%▼−6.58%×1.11

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±5.4%▼−7.62%×1.42

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−0.87%×0.15

Jan 28 '26Jan 28 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+5.13%×0.89

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±5.6%▼−8.25%×1.47

Q2 FY26Jul 14 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−25.21%×7.51

Jul 22 '26Jul 22 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+0.43%×0.07

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed±6.4%▲+0.26%×0.04

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.4%▲+0.26%×0.04

Jul '26±5.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.06OI · 10 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

3,365+4%Nov 65d0.556,090+16%0.55

1,871+2%Nov 1312d0.732,563+7%0.73

28,7260%Nov 2019d0.5849,3910%0.58

476+12%Nov 2726d1.49320+40%1.49

326+12%Dec 433d0.80407+8%0.80

32,687+5%Dec 1847d0.7543,588+9%0.75

54,8580%Jan 1575d0.7473,7840%0.74

report · Jan 27 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 65d3,365+4%6,090+16%0.55

Nov 1312d1,871+2%2,563+7%0.73

Nov 2019d28,7260%49,391

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.8%

Funds 4

DIA±0.3%

XLK±0.2%

VTV±0.1%

VIG±0.1%

Customers 2

ACIW±4.8%×0.34

JKHY±2.9%×0.21

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

12.80%as filednet margin · revenue −0.34% QoQ · +4.73% YoY

Revenue

$17.1B−0.34% QoQ

Gross profit

$9.7B−1.95% QoQ

56.80% margin

Operating income

$3.0B+0.78% QoQ

17.48% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.5B+0.73% QoQ

Net income

$2.2B+1.15% QoQ

12.80% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.4B+1.85% QoQ

Operating expenses

$6.7B−3.11% QoQ

SG&A $4.6B

R&D $2.2B

Other expense

$491M

Tax

$298M−4.79% QoQ

Revenue$17.1B−0.34%

Gross profit

$9.7B−1.95%

56.80% margin

Operating income

$3.0B+0.78%

17.48% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.5B+0.73%

Net income

$2.2B+1.15%

12.80% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.4B+1.85%

Operating expenses

$6.7B−3.11%

SG&A $4.6B

R&D $2.2B

Other expense

$491M

Tax$298M−4.79%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×2.89· ±3.9% vs ±1.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.9%2 of 11×2.89

NFPjobs report±2.0%6 of 10×1.43

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%9 of 19×1.43

PPIproducer prices±1.6%5 of 11×1.18

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%5 of 12×1.13

FOMCrate decision±1.3%13 of 25×0.94

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%6 of 19×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.30 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	2.30	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 14 '26 · confirmed	2.27	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	1.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod