How often does Hillman Solutions move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HLMNNasdaqCutlery, Handtools & General Hardware

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.42

+0.62 · +7.95%

post 7.99 −5.11%

After hours17:57 ETdelayed

Open8.35Volume2.3MMkt cap$1.7BP/E38.05EPS0.21

Day7.85 – 8.4225%52-wk6.66 – 10.8532%

HLMN

Hillman Solutions Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 16

before open · in 106 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 2

after close

confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

22.50%

of HLMN revenue · Home Depot

customerHLMN 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.90%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

228 managers

Top fund weight

0.05%

HLMN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Hillman Solutions (HLMN) is expected to report on Feb 16 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±14.1%
avg realized: ±7.8%

Feb 18 '25Feb 18 '25confirmed±6.6%▼−2.12%×0.32

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±9.6%▼−7.40%×0.77

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±10.5%▲+19.07%×1.82

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±18.7%▼−2.80%×0.15

Feb 17 '26Feb 17 '26confirmed±10.3%▼−10.14%×0.99

Q1 FY26Apr 27 '26confirmed±13.7%▼−5.13%×0.37

Q2 FY26Jul 13 '26confirmed±17.3%▲+1.68%×0.10

Aug 4 '26Aug 4 '26confirmed±25.8%▲+14.44%×0.56

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Aug '26±25.8%▲+14.44%×0.56

Q2 FY26±17.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 1 expiry · Oct 30 close

0.45OI · 1 expiry · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

860%Jan 1574d1920%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Jan 1574d860%1920%0.45

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

4.78%as filednet margin · revenue +19.50% QoQ · +9.79% YoY

Revenue

$442M+19.50% QoQ

Gross profit

$208M+23.44% QoQ

47.05% margin

Operating income

$41M+467.41% QoQ

9.26% margin

Pre-tax income

$28M+581.63% QoQ

Net income

$21M+546.32% QoQ

4.78% margin

Cost of revenue

$234M+16.21% QoQ

Operating expenses

$167M+3.59% QoQ

SG&A $134M

Depreciation $23M

Other operating $11M

Other expense

$13M

Tax

$7M+739.38% QoQ

Revenue$442M+19.50%

Gross profit

$208M+23.44%

47.05% margin

Operating income

$41M+467.41%

9.26% margin

Pre-tax income

$28M+581.63%

Net income

$21M+546.32%

4.78% margin

Cost of revenue

$234M+16.21%

Operating expenses

$167M+3.59%

SG&A $134M

Depreciation $23M

Other operating $11M

Other expense

$13M

Tax$7M+739.38%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.21· ±2.1% vs ±1.7% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.1%3 of 11×1.21

FOMCrate decision±2.0%12 of 24×1.12

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%5 of 12×0.88

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%7 of 20×0.75

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%8 of 20×0.71

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%4 of 11×0.57

NFPjobs report±0.8%5 of 10×0.44

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.11 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 13 '26 · confirmed	0.11	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 27 '26 · confirmed	-0.02	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	0.12	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod