What move does the options market price into Alphabet's report?

Implied ±12.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Alphabet move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GOOGLNasdaqServices-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

281.45

Closed19:55 ET

Open281.76Volume64.4MMkt cap$3.4TP/E14.52EPS19.39Div yield0.31%

Day277.60 – 283.5265%52-wk270.00 – 408.108%

GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±12.5%implied · straddle

244.86314.82

spot 279.84exp Feb 19ATM strike 280ATM straddle 41.15IV 33%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 3

after close · in 95 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−12.64%

vs ±4.9% implied · ×2.59

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

20.00%

of Duolingo revenue

supplierDUOL 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.67%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

5,828 managers

Top fund weight

23.50%

GOOGL weight · XLC

N-PORTJun 30 '26

15 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Alphabet (GOOGL) is expected to report on Feb 3 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.1%
avg realized: ±5.3%

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−7.29%×1.30

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±5.2%▲+1.68%×0.33

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±4.8%▲+1.02%×0.21

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±5.5%▲+2.52%×0.46

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±5.5%▼−0.54%×0.10

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±4.7%▲+9.96%×2.14

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±5.0%▼−7.13%×1.42

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±4.9%▼−12.64%×2.59

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±4.9%▼−12.64%×2.59

Q2 FY26±5.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 14 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.09OI · 14 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

9 nearer expiries

14,220+127%Nov 22d0.4233,777+150%0.42

5,253+206%Nov 44d0.3813,739+149%0.38

34,399+19%Nov 66d0.4772,760+88%0.47

1,654—Nov 99d0.285,885—0.28

15,939+8%Nov 1313d1.1314,161+9%1.13

169,146−2%Nov 2020d0.39433,259+17%0.39

2,515+29%Nov 2727d0.952,639+23%0.95

4,388+10%Dec 434d1.074,101+59%1.07

1,635—Dec 1141d1.281,277—1.28

172,5640%Dec 1848d0.65263,9760%0.65

274,405−1%Jan 1576d0.65420,134+6%0.65

report · Feb 3 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

9 nearer expiries

Nov 22d14,220+127%33,777+150%0.42

Nov 44d5,253+206%13,739+149%0.38

Nov 66d34,399+19%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.5%

Funds 4

XLC±2.9%

VUG±1.3%

IGPT±1.1%

QQQ±0.8%

Customers 1

ADT±3.1%×0.25

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

20.75%as filednet margin · revenue +6.50% QoQ · +24.65% YoY

Revenue

$128B+6.50% QoQ

Gross profit

$76.2B+3.12% QoQ

59.70% margin

Operating income

$40.6B−0.48% QoQ

31.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$32.4B−76.68% QoQ

Net income

$26.5B−76.41% QoQ

20.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$51.4B+11.92% QoQ

Operating expenses

$35.6B+7.55% QoQ

R&D $20.6B

Marketing $8.8B

SG&A $6.1B

Other expense

$8.2B

Tax

$5.9B−77.84% QoQ

Revenue$128B+6.50%

Gross profit

$76.2B+3.12%

59.70% margin

Operating income

$40.6B−0.48%

31.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$32.4B−76.68%

Net income

$26.5B−76.41%

20.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$51.4B+11.92%

Operating expenses

$35.6B+7.55%

R&D $20.6B

Marketing $8.8B

SG&A $6.1B

Other expense

$8.2B

Tax$5.9B−77.84%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.33· ±1.8% vs ±1.4% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%11 of 19×1.33

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%10 of 19×1.27

FOMCrate decision±1.7%16 of 24×1.21

PPIproducer prices±1.4%8 of 11×1.02

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%5 of 11×0.87

NFPjobs report±1.0%3 of 10×0.75

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%7 of 12×0.72

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.12 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	2.12	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	9.11	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	5.11	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod