What move does the options market price into Alphabet's report?

Implied ±1.5%, either direction.

How often does Alphabet move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GOOGNasdaqServices-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

291.16

+12.89 · +4.63%

Regular session10:35 ET

Open278.05Volume35.0MMkt cap$3.4TP/E15.02EPS19.39Div yield0.31%

Day277.75 – 293.5585%52-wk270.00 – 408.1015%

GOOG

Alphabet Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±1.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±5.2%·×0.29·cheap

274.14282.40

straddle ±12.6%

spot 278.27exp Feb 19ATM strike 280ATM straddle 41.40IV 34%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 3

after close · in 91 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−12.29%

vs ±5.2% implied · ×2.35

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.08%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

5,273 managers

Top fund weight

4.03%

GOOG weight · GLO

N-PORTJul 31 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Alphabet (GOOG) is expected to report on Feb 3 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.1%
avg realized: ±5.2%

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−6.94%×1.25

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±5.2%▲+1.47%×0.28

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±4.8%▲+0.88%×0.18

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±5.5%▲+2.45%×0.45

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±5.5%▼−0.60%×0.11

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±4.5%▲+9.97%×2.20

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±4.9%▼−6.89%×1.41

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±5.2%▼−12.29%×2.35

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.2%▼−12.29%×2.35

Q2 FY26±4.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.78OI · 11 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

34,949+77%Nov 62d0.4675,262+238%0.46

13,342+45%Nov 139d0.6620,067+114%0.66

80,055−7%Nov 2016d0.53151,274+32%0.53

12,999+425%Nov 2723d0.6021,739+971%0.60

1,932+52%Dec 430d1.641,180+58%1.64

4,548—Dec 1137d1.662,732—1.66

107,850+7%Dec 1844d0.68159,185+4%0.68

174,930+4%Jan 1572d0.70248,304+12%0.70

report · Feb 3 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 62d34,949+77%75,262+238%0.46

Nov 139d13,342+45%20,067+114%0.66

Nov 2016d80,055−7%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±12.6%

Funds 2

GLO±0.5%

ARKK±0.3%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

20.75%as filednet margin · revenue +6.50% QoQ · +24.65% YoY

Revenue

$128B+6.50% QoQ

Gross profit

$76.2B+3.12% QoQ

59.70% margin

Operating income

$40.6B−0.48% QoQ

31.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$32.4B−76.68% QoQ

Net income

$26.5B−76.41% QoQ

20.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$51.4B+11.92% QoQ

Operating expenses

$35.6B+7.55% QoQ

R&D $20.6B

Marketing $8.8B

SG&A $6.1B

Other expense

$8.2B

Tax

$5.9B−77.84% QoQ

Revenue$128B+6.50%

Gross profit

$76.2B+3.12%

59.70% margin

Operating income

$40.6B−0.48%

31.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$32.4B−76.68%

Net income

$26.5B−76.41%

20.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$51.4B+11.92%

Operating expenses

$35.6B+7.55%

R&D $20.6B

Marketing $8.8B

SG&A $6.1B

Other expense

$8.2B

Tax$5.9B−77.84%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 10:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.30· ±1.8% vs ±1.4% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%11 of 19×1.30

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%10 of 19×1.28

FOMCrate decision±1.7%15 of 24×1.23

PPIproducer prices±1.6%7 of 10×1.14

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%5 of 10×0.85

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%7 of 12×0.75

NFPjobs report±1.0%3 of 10×0.73

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.12 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	2.12	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	9.11	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	5.11	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod