How often does Fortinet move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FTNTNasdaqComputer Peripheral Equipment, NEC

Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

124.27

−5.12 · −3.96%

Regular session12:16 ET

Open128.00Volume5.8MMkt cap$95.1BP/E39.96EPS3.11

Day124.19 – 128.422%52-wk73.55 – 197.1341%

FTNT

Fortinet, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 4

after close · in 91 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−20.09%

vs ±10.0% implied · ×2.00

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1hMU · supplierMicron, Sandisk and other AI stocks are falling hard: ‘Investors don’t like uncertainty’
1hQCOM · supplierQualcomm slides 9% after earnings, leading postelection chip stock sell-off
4hARW · customerArrow posts quarterly sales $10,717,739 thousand; diluted EPS $6.17

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.83%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,591 managers

Top fund weight

1.03%

FTNT weight · FTC

N-PORTJul 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Fortinet (FTNT) is expected to report on Feb 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.2%
avg realized: ±10.7%

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±9.2%▲+2.81%×0.30

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±7.7%▼−8.41%×1.10

Q2 FY25Aug 6 '25confirmed±8.5%▼−22.03%×2.58

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±8.7%▼−6.34%×0.73

Q4 FY25Feb 5 '26confirmed±9.2%▲+4.85%×0.53

Q1 FY26May 6 '26confirmed±8.9%▲+20.03%×2.26

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±11.7%▲+0.67%×0.06

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±10.0%▼−20.09%×2.00

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±10.0%▼−20.09%×2.00

Q2 FY26±11.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 close

1.37OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

3,249+61%Nov 61d0.645,071+55%0.64

1,067+9%Nov 138d0.601,786+33%0.60

8,731−2%Nov 2015d0.7411,791+21%0.74

1,069+6%Nov 2722d1.23872+10%1.23

814+89%Dec 429d1.80452+24%1.80

17,042+3%Dec 1843d1.0116,815+6%1.01

26,783+2%Jan 1571d0.9827,2560%0.98

report · Feb 4 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 61d3,249+61%5,071+55%0.64

Nov 138d1,067+9%1,786+33%0.60

Nov 2015d8,731−2%11,791

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

30.58%as filednet margin · revenue +1.49% QoQ · +20.49% YoY

Revenue

$2.1B+1.49% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.6B−0.14% QoQ

78.95% margin

Operating income

$704M+2.18% QoQ

33.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$755M+4.83% QoQ

Net income

$636M+4.82% QoQ

30.58% margin

Cost of revenue

$438M+8.10% QoQ

Operating expenses

$937M−1.81% QoQ

Marketing $665M

R&D $213M

SG&A $60M

Tax

$120M+3.91% QoQ

Other income

$51M+64.08% QoQ

Revenue$2.1B+1.49%

Gross profit

$1.6B−0.14%

78.95% margin

Operating income

$704M+2.18%

33.89% margin

Pre-tax income

$755M+4.83%

Net income

$636M+4.82%

30.58% margin

Cost of revenue

$438M+8.10%

Operating expenses

$937M−1.81%

Marketing $665M

R&D $213M

SG&A $60M

Other income$51M+64.08%

Tax$120M+3.91%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 12:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.10· ±1.9% vs ±1.7% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.9%5 of 10×1.10

CPROFcorporate profits±1.8%7 of 12×1.08

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%4 of 11×1.06

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%9 of 19×0.97

PPIproducer prices±1.6%5 of 11×0.95

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%9 of 19×0.88

FOMCrate decision±1.4%13 of 24×0.84

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.86 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.86	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.82	—
Q1 FY26	May 6 '26 · confirmed	0.72	—
Q4 FY25	Feb 5 '26 · confirmed	0.81	—

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod