What move does the options market price into FTAI Aviation's report?

Implied ±25.9%, either direction · provisional.

FTAINasdaqServices-Miscellaneous Equipment Rental & Leasing

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

201.02

+3.27 · +1.66%

post 200.00 −0.51%

Closed19:16 ET

Open196.93Volume1.5MMkt cap$20.5BP/E40.00EPS5.00Div yield0.85%

Day196.93 – 202.2857%52-wk146.48 – 321.7031%

FTAI

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±25.9%implied · straddle

148.81252.67

spot 200.74exp Mar 19ATM strike 200ATM straddle 61.10IV 64%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 24

after close · in 112 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+17.27%

vs ±8.7% implied · ×1.99

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

7dLMT · supplierLockheed Martin to Add Air-Launched Hypersonic Missile to the American Arsenal of Freedom

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.75%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

680 managers

Top fund weight

0.74%

FTAI weight · FTC

N-PORTJul 31 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

FTAI Aviation (FTAI) is expected to report on Feb 24 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▲+0.07%—

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±8.7%▲+17.27%×1.99

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Oct '26±8.7%▲+17.27%×1.99

Q2 FY26—▲+0.07%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.89OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

7 nearer expiries

424+105%Nov 62d0.271,594+143%0.27

372+19%Nov 139d0.51731+1098%0.51

3,661+6%Nov 2016d0.448,341−3%0.44

273+618%Nov 2723d2.7998+188%2.79

6+200%Dec 430d0.1833+6%0.18

18—Dec 1137d1.6411—1.64

2,441+13%Dec 1844d0.703,466+10%0.70

5,616+5%Jan 1572d0.836,783+2%0.83

286+10%Feb 19107d0.87329+3%0.87

report · Feb 24 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

7 nearer expiries

Nov 62d424+105%1,594+143%0.27

Nov 139d372+19%731+1098%0.51

Nov 2016d3,661+6%8,341

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±25.9%

Funds 3

FTC±0.2%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

15.40%as filednet margin · revenue +2.58% QoQ · +46.56% YoY

Revenue

$978M+2.58% QoQ

Gross profit

$354M+11.51% QoQ

36.19% margin

Operating income

$219M+12.35% QoQ

22.39% margin

Pre-tax income

$173M+14.69% QoQ

Net income

$151M+20.40% QoQ

15.40% margin

Cost of revenue

$624M−1.88% QoQ

Operating expenses

$135M+10.18% QoQ

SG&A $65M

Depreciation $43M

R&D $22M

Other operating $5M

Other expense

$46M

Tax

$22M−13.19% QoQ

Revenue$978M+2.58%

Gross profit

$354M+11.51%

36.19% margin

Operating income

$219M+12.35%

22.39% margin

Pre-tax income

$173M+14.69%

Net income

$151M+20.40%

15.40% margin

Cost of revenue

$624M−1.88%

Operating expenses

$135M+10.18%

SG&A $65M

Depreciation $43M

R&D $22M

Other expense

$46M

Tax$22M−13.19%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.70· ±4.7% vs ±2.7% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±4.7%11 of 19×1.70

FOMCrate decision±3.9%16 of 24×1.43

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.8%7 of 19×1.03

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%5 of 10×0.97

PPIproducer prices±2.7%5 of 10×0.97

NFPjobs report±2.6%1 of 10×0.95

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%6 of 12×0.73

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.43 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	1.43	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	1.13	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.29	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod