What move does the options market price into Etsy's report?

Implied ±21.1%, either direction · provisional.

ETSYNYSEServices-Business Services, NEC

Etsy Inc (ETSY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

91.65

+0.06 · +0.06%

post 88.95 −2.94%

Closed15:59 ET

Open92.03Volume3.4MMkt cap$7.7BP/E8.36EPS10.64

Day88.26 – 92.0618%52-wk44.00 – 94.4989%

ETSY

Etsy Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±21.1%implied · straddle

70.20107.72

spot 88.96exp Mar 19ATM strike 90ATM straddle 22.07IV 51%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

before open · in 109 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.35%

vs ±7.1% implied · ×0.75

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

10hMETA · supplierMeta outlook revised downward by S&P on cash flow and capex concerns
16hGOOGL · supplierGoogle lost nearly half a trillion this week. Here's how Mike Khouw is trading it
19hAMZN · supplierAmazon falls 2%, Intel dives 29%, as tech stocks sell off in post-earnings rout

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.27%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

561 managers

Top fund weight

0.07%

ETSY weight · REVS

N-PORTJul 31 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Etsy (ETSY) is expected to report on Feb 17 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed—▼−4.19%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±7.1%▲+5.35%×0.75

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±7.1%▲+5.35%×0.75

Q2 FY26—▼−4.19%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.64OI · 9 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

1,155+90%Nov 66d0.462,517+7%0.46

406+38%Nov 1313d1.25326+37%1.25

6,086+27%Nov 2020d1.903,203+13%1.90

146+26%Nov 2727d0.88166+57%0.88

124—Dec 434d5.9021—5.90

1—Dec 1141d—0——

9,1040%Dec 1848d0.1561,616+3%0.15

14,871+2%Jan 1576d0.6323,5030%0.63

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d1,155+90%2,517+7%0.46

Nov 1313d406+38%326+37%1.25

Nov 2020d6,086+27%3,203

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±21.1%

Funds 3

REVS±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

123.26%as filednet margin · revenue +3.61% QoQ · +2.13% YoY

Revenue

$692M+3.61% QoQ

Gross profit

$503M+3.95% QoQ

72.66% margin

Operating income

$111M−11.04% QoQ

16.09% margin

Pre-tax income

$129M−4.65% QoQ

Net income

$854M+1929.62% QoQ

123.26% margin

Cost of revenue

$189M+2.74% QoQ

Operating expenses

$392M+9.18% QoQ

Marketing $207M

R&D $111M

SG&A $74M

Tax

$15M−26.99% QoQ

Other income

$17M+77.97% QoQ

Revenue$692M+3.61%

Gross profit

$503M+3.95%

72.66% margin

Operating income

$111M−11.04%

16.09% margin

Pre-tax income

$129M−4.65%

Net income

$854M+1929.62%

123.26% margin

Cost of revenue

$189M+2.74%

Operating expenses

$392M+9.18%

Marketing $207M

R&D $111M

SG&A $74M

Other income$17M+77.97%

Tax$15M−26.99%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.45· ±3.2% vs ±2.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.2%5 of 10×1.45

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.0%9 of 19×1.32

GDPgross domestic product±2.9%9 of 19×1.30

FOMCrate decision±2.7%10 of 24×1.22

CPROFcorporate profits±2.2%5 of 12×0.97

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%6 of 11×0.85

PPIproducer prices±1.9%7 of 11×0.84

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 7.31 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	7.31	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.36	—
Q1 FY26	—	0.60	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod