How often does Evolution Petroleum move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

EPMNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

3.80

pre 3.80 −0.44%

Pre-market16:00 ETdelayed

Open3.81Volume287,812Mkt cap$152.7MEPS-0.08Div yield12.63%

Day3.74 – 3.8197%52-wk2.92 – 4.7050%

EPM

Evolution Petroleum Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 10

before open · in 8 days

est.Q1 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.63%

vs ±39.1% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 15 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dXOM · supplierChevron and Exxon hit all-time highs as refining profits soar in reaction to Iran and Ukraine wars
4dPSX · customerPhillips 66 posts net income of $5,616 million in Q3; $9,670 million YTD
7dOVV · supplierOvintiv to acquire Logan Energy for C$1.40 per share, consideration C$1.26 billion (approx $890 million)

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.42%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

116 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

EPM weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Evolution Petroleum (EPM) is expected to report on Nov 10 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.0%
avg realized: ±3.8%

Nov 12 '24Nov 12 '24confirmed±9.3%▲+3.99%×0.43

Feb 11 '25Feb 11 '25confirmed±8.0%▼−1.32%×0.16

May 13 '25May 13 '25confirmed±12.0%▲+1.12%×0.09

Sep 16 '25Sep 16 '25confirmed±11.3%▼−0.54%×0.05

Nov 12 '25Nov 12 '25confirmed±10.2%▼−4.36%×0.43

Q2 FY26Feb 10 '26confirmed±20.1%▲+5.50%×0.27

Q3 FY26May 12 '26confirmed±9.8%▼−12.11%×1.23

Sep 15 '26Sep 15 '26confirmed±39.1%▼−1.63%×0.04

quarterimplied−40%0+40%realized×

Sep '26±39.1%▼−1.63%×0.04

Q3 FY26±9.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.11OI · 2 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

162−3%Jan 1574d1,535+7%

890%Apr 16165d0.051,8040%0.05

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Jan 1574d162−3%1,535+7%0.11

Apr 16165d890%1,8040%0.05

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

derived from FYQ4 FY26

19.06%derived from FYnet margin · revenue +20.03% QoQ · +14.69% YoY

Revenue

$24M+20.03% QoQ

Gross profit

$11M+58.50% QoQ

47.20% margin

Operating income

$3M+720.97% QoQ

14.31% margin

Pre-tax income

$5M+145.10% QoQ

Net income

$5M+151.66% QoQ

19.06% margin

Cost of revenue

$13M−1.37% QoQ

Operating expenses

$8M+2.50% QoQ

Depreciation $6M

SG&A $2M

Tax

$511,000+121.02% QoQ

Other income

$2M+115.36% QoQ

Revenue$24M+20.03%

Gross profit

$11M+58.50%

47.20% margin

Operating income

$3M+720.97%

14.31% margin

Pre-tax income

$5M+145.10%

Net income

$5M+151.66%

19.06% margin

Cost of revenue

$13M−1.37%

Operating expenses

$8M+2.50%

Depreciation $6M

SG&A $2M

Other income$2M+115.36%

Tax$511,000+121.02%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQDerived: FY − Q1–Q3 · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.83· ±3.2% vs ±1.7% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.2%5 of 11×1.83

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%6 of 11×1.27

NFPjobs report±1.8%5 of 10×1.06

FOMCrate decision±1.5%11 of 25×0.89

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%8 of 20×0.79

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%9 of 20×0.76

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%7 of 12×0.60

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.13 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q4 FY26	—	0.13	—
Q3 FY26	May 12 '26 · confirmed	-0.26	—
Q2 FY26	Feb 10 '26 · confirmed	0.03	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod