What move does the options market price into Enphase Energy's report?

Implied ±27.3%, either direction · provisional.

ENPHNasdaqSemiconductors & Related Devices

Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

30.42

pre 32.67 +7.40%

Pre-market05:25 ETdelayed

Open32.41Volume9.1MMkt cap$4.0BP/E48.04EPS0.68

Day32.23 – 32.67100%52-wk23.83 – 73.7418%

ENPH

Enphase Energy, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±27.3%implied · straddle

22.1138.73

spot 30.42exp Feb 19ATM strike 30ATM straddle 9.77IV 75%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 2

after close · in 90 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−16.03%

vs ±9.9% implied · ×1.62

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

39.00%

of ENPH revenue · Undisclosed customer

customerENPH 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+9.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

542 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

ENPH weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Enphase Energy (ENPH) is expected to report on Feb 2 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

2 reports

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed—▼−3.44%—

Q3 FY26Oct 27 '26confirmed±9.9%▼−16.03%×1.62

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.9%▼−16.03%×1.62

Q2 FY26—▼−3.44%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.16OI · 8 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

2,045+53%Nov 62d0.336,265+32%0.33

1,910+33%Nov 139d0.952,011+42%0.95

19,185+6%Nov 2016d0.5634,405+28%0.56

1,136+31%Nov 2723d0.552,084+33%0.55

481—Dec 430d0.84575—0.84

24,629−2%Dec 1844d0.6438,737+2%0.64

35,400−9%Jan 1572d0.3892,873+2%0.38

report · Feb 2 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 62d2,045+53%6,265+32%0.33

Nov 139d1,910+33%2,011+42%0.95

Nov 2016d19,185+6%34,405

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±27.3%

Funds 2

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

7.97%as filednet margin · revenue +0.51% QoQ · −28.53% YoY

Revenue$293M+0.51%

Gross profit$127M43.34%−27.37%

Operating income$6M2.20%−87.45%

Pre-tax income−$4M−105.77%

Net income$23M7.97%−35.18%

Cost of revenue$166M+42.26%

Operating expenses$121M−2.30%

Tax−$27M−204.41%

Other expense−$10M−196.70%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 05:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.38· ±4.5% vs ±3.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.5%5 of 10×1.38

PPIproducer prices±4.0%5 of 10×1.23

GDPgross domestic product±4.0%12 of 19×1.23

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.9%12 of 19×1.20

FOMCrate decision±3.9%9 of 24×1.19

CPROFcorporate profits±3.8%7 of 12×1.18

CPIconsumer prices±2.3%2 of 10×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.17 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	0.17	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	0.27	—
Q1 FY26	—	-0.06	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod