What move does the options market price into Delta Air Lines's report?

Implied ±3.6%, either direction.

How often does Delta Air Lines move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

DALNYSEAir Transportation, Scheduled

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

80.15

−1.49 · −1.83%

post 80.01 −0.17%

Closed18:03 ET

Open80.97Volume4.3MMkt cap$52.7BP/E15.84EPS5.05Div yield1.24%

Day78.75 – 80.9757%52-wk54.45 – 95.1863%

DAL

Delta Air Lines, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±3.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±7.1%·×0.51·cheap

77.2683.04

straddle ±13.1%

spot 80.15exp Jan 15ATM strike 80ATM straddle 12.35IV 42%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 12

before open · in 73 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.04%

vs ±5.3% implied · ×0.01

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 9 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dRJET · supplierRepublic Airways reports Q3 net income $34.6 million; revenues $553.5 million
1dSKYW · supplierSkywest three-month net income $119,523 thousand, EPS $3.08; nine-month net $321,915 thousand, EPS $8.11
1dAXP · supplierAmerican Express issues $1,500,000,000 5.447% and $1,150,000,000 5.817% notes; $350,000,000 floating

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.57%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

1,526 managers

Top fund weight

1.06%

DAL weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is expected to report on Jan 12 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.9%
avg realized: ±7.1%

Jan 10 '25Jan 10 '25confirmed±4.7%▲+9.00%×1.90

Apr 9 '25Apr 9 '25confirmed±10.0%▲+23.38%×2.34

Jul 10 '25Jul 10 '25confirmed±6.0%▲+11.99%×2.01

Oct 9 '25Oct 9 '25confirmed±5.9%▲+4.29%×0.73

Jan 13 '26Jan 13 '26confirmed±5.6%▼−2.39%×0.43

Q1 FY26Apr 8 '26confirmed±5.9%▲+3.75%×0.63

Q2 FY26Jul 10 '26confirmed±4.0%▼−1.81%×0.45

Q3 FY26Oct 9 '26confirmed±5.3%▲+0.04%×0.01

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.3%▲+0.04%×0.01

Q2 FY26±4.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Oct 28 close

1.08OI · 8 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4 nearer expiries

4,381+10%Nov 66d1.253,512+26%1.25

2,661+3%Nov 1313d1.631,632+8%1.63

22,563+1%Nov 2020d0.3860,007+1%0.38

961+10%Nov 2727d0.97995+180%0.97

0—Dec 434d—0——

45,804+1%Dec 1848d0.17266,020+90%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

4 nearer expiries

Nov 66d4,381+10%3,512+26%1.25

Nov 1313d2,661+3%1,632+8%1.63

Nov 2020d22,563+1%60,007

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±13.1%

Funds 4

XLI±0.1%

REVS±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 4

SKYW±8.4%×0.64

SPHR±6.7%×0.51

SHAK±6.4%×0.49

Customers 1

AXP±5.2%×0.40

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

3.75%as filednet margin · revenue +2.17% QoQ · +21.07% YoY

Revenue

$20.2B+2.17% QoQ

Gross profit

$5.6B−6.50% QoQ

27.86% margin

Operating income

$1.5B−22.00% QoQ

7.20% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.1B−46.54% QoQ

Net income

$756M−52.87% QoQ

3.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$14.6B+5.97% QoQ

Operating expenses

$4.2B+0.46% QoQ

SG&A $1.9B

Other operating $883M

Marketing $703M

Other operating $673M

Other expense

$380M

Tax

$318M−21.48% QoQ

Revenue$20.2B+2.17%

Gross profit

$5.6B−6.50%

27.86% margin

Operating income

$1.5B−22.00%

7.20% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.1B−46.54%

Net income

$756M−52.87%

3.75% margin

Cost of revenue

$14.6B+5.97%

Operating expenses

$4.2B+0.46%

SG&A $1.9B

Other operating $883M

Marketing $703M

Other expense

$380M

Tax$318M−21.48%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.52· ±2.8% vs ±1.8% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.8%5 of 10×1.52

FOMCrate decision±1.7%10 of 24×0.91

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%9 of 19×0.89

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%2 of 10×0.76

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%9 of 19×0.76

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%4 of 12×0.72

NFPjobs report±1.3%3 of 10×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.15 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 9 '26 · confirmed	1.15	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 10 '26 · confirmed	2.44	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 8 '26 · confirmed	-0.44	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod