What move does the options market price into Carvana's report?

Implied ±20.5%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Carvana move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CVNANYSERetail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations

Carvana Co. (CVNA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

73.04

+1.76 · +2.47%

Regular session09:34 ET

Open71.75Volume10.0MMkt cap$51.5BP/E30.82EPS2.37

Day71.75 – 73.1493%52-wk54.46 – 97.3843%

CVNA

Carvana Co.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±20.5%implied · straddle

56.6885.88

spot 71.28exp Feb 19ATM strike 70ATM straddle 17.17IV 56%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

after close · in 105 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+15.68%

vs ±12.2% implied · ×1.28

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2hOPLN · customerOPENLANE posts Q3 revenue $561 million, net income $45 million, Adjusted EBITDA $107 million
1dALLY · customerAlly posts Q3 net income $433 million, diluted EPS $1.30; revenue $2,332 million
61dROOT · supplierRoot to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+368.42%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

829 managers

Top fund weight

1.17%

CVNA weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Carvana (CVNA) is expected to report on Feb 17 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.4%
avg realized: ±10.5%

Feb 19 '25Feb 19 '25confirmed±11.0%▼−12.10%×1.10

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±11.1%▲+10.17%×0.91

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±10.0%▲+16.96%×1.69

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±11.7%▼−13.81%×1.18

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±12.6%▼−7.95%×0.63

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±10.7%▼−0.20%×0.02

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±11.8%▼−7.36%×0.62

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±12.2%▲+15.68%×1.28

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±12.2%▲+15.68%×1.28

Q2 FY26±11.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 close

1.55OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

15,660+305%Nov 62d0.6523,947+358%0.65

4,497+121%Nov 139d0.875,154+53%0.87

107,8430%Nov 2016d1.1693,017+3%1.16

2,585+517%Nov 2723d2.151,201+615%2.15

101+84%Dec 430d0.72140+52%0.72

115—Dec 1137d1.4281—1.42

110,558+4%Dec 1844d1.1596,338+19%1.15

112,888+1%Jan 1572d0.98114,8430%0.98

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 62d15,660+305%23,947+358%0.65

Nov 139d4,497+121%5,154+53%0.87

Nov 2016d107,8430%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±20.5%

Funds 4

XLY±0.2%

FTC±0.1%

RSP±0.0%

VUG±0.0%

Suppliers 1

ROOT±10.8%×0.52

Customers 2

OPLN±4.9%×0.24

ALLY±4.3%×0.21

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

6.01%as filednet margin · revenue +9.00% QoQ · +42.38% YoY

Revenue

$8.0B+9.00% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.5B+9.90% QoQ

18.92% margin

Operating income

$714M+5.00% QoQ

8.88% margin

Pre-tax income

$552M−4.66% QoQ

Net income

$483M−5.85% QoQ

6.01% margin

Cost of revenue

$6.5B+8.80% QoQ

Operating expenses

$807M+14.63% QoQ

SG&A $805M

Other operating $2M

Other expense

$162M

Tax

$69M+4.55% QoQ

Revenue$8.0B+9.00%

Gross profit

$1.5B+9.90%

18.92% margin

Operating income

$714M+5.00%

8.88% margin

Pre-tax income

$552M−4.66%

Net income

$483M−5.85%

6.01% margin

Cost of revenue

$6.5B+8.80%

Operating expenses

$807M+14.63%

SG&A $805M

Other operating $2M

Other expense

$162M

Tax$69M+4.55%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 09:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.51· ±4.8% vs ±3.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.8%14 of 24×1.51

PPIproducer prices±3.8%4 of 10×1.18

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.9%12 of 19×0.92

CPIconsumer prices±2.9%5 of 10×0.89

NFPjobs report±2.8%7 of 10×0.87

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%4 of 12×0.63

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%7 of 19×0.62

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.39 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.39	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.42	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	1.69	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod