What move does the options market price into Corpay's report?

Implied ±4.0%, either direction.

How often does Corpay move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CPAYNYSEServices-Business Services, NEC

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

399.25

+1.28 · +0.32%

post 399.25 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open399.32Volume406,460Mkt cap$26.3BP/E24.01EPS16.63

Day397.68 – 401.6540%52-wk252.84 – 427.4684%

CPAY

Corpay, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±4.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±5.1%·×0.78·cheap

384.99416.89

straddle ±5.8%

spot 400.94exp Nov 20ATM strike 400ATM straddle 27.20IV 35%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.95%

vs ±5.6% implied · ×0.17

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dV · supplierSecret SantAI? Visa Survey Finds Americans Quietly Turning to AI for Holiday Shopping Help
2dMA · supplierMastercard Q3 net income $4,628 million, net revenue $9,807 million, EPS $5.28

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.45%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

731 managers

Top fund weight

0.63%

CPAY weight · JEPI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Corpay (CPAY) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.4%
avg realized: ±5.1%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±4.9%▲+5.63%×1.14

Feb 5 '25Feb 5 '25confirmed±5.1%▲+0.23%×0.04

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±5.1%▼−0.13%×0.03

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±4.8%▼−3.35%×0.69

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±6.7%▲+6.23%×0.93

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±5.5%▲+11.56%×2.11

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±5.8%▲+12.51%×2.17

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±5.6%▲+0.95%×0.17

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±5.6%▲+0.95%×0.17

Q1 FY26±5.8%▲+12.51%×2.17

Feb '26±5.5%▲+11.56%×2.11

Q3 FY25±6.7%▲+6.23%×0.93

Aug '25±4.8%▼−3.35%×0.69

May '25±5.1%▼−0.13%×0.03

2 older reports

Feb '25±5.1%▲+0.23%×0.04

Nov '24±4.9%▲+5.63%×1.14

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.36OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1520%Nov 2020d4230%

0—Dec 1848d0.0020%0.00

1830%Jan 1576d0.082,3440%0.08

3750%Feb 19111d0.113,5470%0.11

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2020d1520%4230%0.36

Dec 1848d0—20%0.00

Jan 1576d1830%2,3440%0.08

Feb 19111d3750%3,5470%0.11

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±5.8%

Funds 4

JEPI±0.0%

XLF±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Suppliers 3

MET±2.2%×0.38

MA±2.0%×0.34

V±1.8%×0.31

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 499dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

18.81%as filednet margin · revenue +6.17% QoQ · +21.49% YoY

Revenue

$1.3B+6.17% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.1B+7.56% QoQ

79.45% margin

Operating income

$472M−25.76% QoQ

35.28% margin

Pre-tax income

$345M−31.74% QoQ

Net income

$252M−28.82% QoQ

18.81% margin

Cost of revenue

$275M+1.14% QoQ

Operating expenses

$591M+67.64% QoQ

SG&A $374M

Depreciation $118M

Other operating $100M

Other expense

$128M

Tax

$93M−38.58% QoQ

Revenue$1.3B+6.17%

Gross profit

$1.1B+7.56%

79.45% margin

Operating income

$472M−25.76%

35.28% margin

Pre-tax income

$345M−31.74%

Net income

$252M−28.82%

18.81% margin

Cost of revenue

$275M+1.14%

Operating expenses

$591M+67.64%

SG&A $374M

Depreciation $118M

Other operating $100M

Other expense

$128M

Tax$93M−38.58%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mVolume ×0.63 · 20d avgSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.94· ±2.8% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.8%5 of 10×1.94

PPIproducer prices±2.1%5 of 10×1.45

FOMCrate decision±1.9%8 of 24×1.32

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.6%8 of 19×1.09

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%4 of 10×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%3 of 12×0.91

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%5 of 19×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.70 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	3.70	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	5.07	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	3.91	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod