What move does the options market price into Cummins's report?

Implied ±5.8%, either direction.

How often does Cummins move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CMINYSEEngines & Turbines

Cummins Inc (CMI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

500.15

Closed17:45 ET

Open508.00Volume1.4MMkt cap$68.8BP/E25.44EPS19.66Div yield1.64%

Day498.25 – 511.1215%52-wk420.64 – 735.0225%

CMI

Cummins Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.8%·×1.22·rich

470.96529.22

straddle ±7.8%

spot 500.09exp Nov 20ATM strike 500ATM straddle 46.00IV 48%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

before open · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.99%

vs ±8.1% implied · ×0.24

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

8.40%

of CTS revenue

supplierCTS 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.72%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

2,119 managers

Top fund weight

1.71%

CMI weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Cummins (CMI) is expected to report on Nov 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.0%
avg realized: ±4.8%

Nov 5 '24Nov 5 '24confirmed±5.1%▲+8.86%×1.74

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±5.1%▲+4.39%×0.86

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±5.7%▲+0.82%×0.14

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±4.7%▲+3.22%×0.69

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±6.5%▲+5.38%×0.83

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−10.73%×1.81

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±6.5%▲+2.76%×0.43

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±8.1%▼−1.99%×0.24

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±8.1%▼−1.99%×0.24

Q1 FY26±6.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 27 close

1.36OI · 3 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,154+1%Nov 2019d1,581+2%

2,5260%Dec 1847d0.753,3860%0.75

1,8740%Mar 19138d0.832,2610%0.83

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2019d2,154+1%1,581+2%1.36

Dec 1847d2,5260%3,3860%0.75

Mar 19138d1,8740%2,2610%0.83

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.8%

Funds 4

XLI±0.1%

FTC±0.1%

REVS±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

Suppliers 2

DAN±5.5%×0.70

CTS±4.6%×0.58

Customers 4

ETN±6.0%×0.77

ATMU±5.2%×0.66

PCAR±3.7%×0.48

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

10.24%as filednet margin · revenue +12.61% QoQ · +9.42% YoY

Revenue

$9.5B+12.61% QoQ

Gross profit

$2.5B+9.90% QoQ

26.07% margin

Operating income

$1.3B+59.68% QoQ

13.52% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.3B+38.44% QoQ

Net income

$968M+42.35% QoQ

10.24% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.0B+13.60% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.3B−7.07% QoQ

SG&A $893M

R&D $385M

Other operating $62M

Tax

$325M+27.95% QoQ

Other income

$168M+26.32% QoQ

Revenue$9.5B+12.61%

Gross profit

$2.5B+9.90%

26.07% margin

Operating income

$1.3B+59.68%

13.52% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.3B+38.44%

Net income

$968M+42.35%

10.24% margin

Cost of revenue

$7.0B+13.60%

Operating expenses

$1.3B−7.07%

SG&A $893M

R&D $385M

Other operating $62M

Other income$168M+26.32%

Tax$325M+27.95%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.41· ±1.9% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.9%5 of 10×1.41

FOMCrate decision±1.6%13 of 24×1.15

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%8 of 10×1.08

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%11 of 19×1.02

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%11 of 19×0.97

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%8 of 12×0.88

PPIproducer prices±1.0%2 of 10×0.76

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 6.73 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	6.73	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	4.71	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	3.86	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod