What move does the options market price into Carnival's report?

Implied ±1.3%, either direction.

How often does Carnival move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CCLNYSEWater Transportation

Carnival Corp Ltd. (CCL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

31.25

Closed19:59 ET

Open29.46Volume29.7MMkt cap$42.1BP/E13.53EPS2.31Div yield1.44%

Day29.45 – 31.3296%52-wk21.45 – 33.4981%

CCL

Carnival Corp Ltd.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±1.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.4%·×0.20·cheap

30.9231.72

straddle ±10.1%

spot 31.32exp Dec 18ATM strike 31ATM straddle 3.73IV 43%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 18

before open · in 43 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+13.41%

vs ±6.0% implied · ×2.23

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

10hSLNG · supplierStabilis Solutions posts net loss of $8,524 thousand for nine months ended September 30, 2026
9dSPCX · supplierSPACEX SECURES $40 BILLION IN THE LARGEST GPU FINANCING EVER

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

—

998 managers

Top fund weight

2.04%

CCL weight · GLO

N-PORTJul 31 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Carnival (CCL) is expected to report on Dec 18 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.0%
avg realized: ±6.4%

Dec 20 '24Dec 20 '24confirmed±6.7%▲+6.43%×0.96

Mar 21 '25Mar 21 '25confirmed±5.4%▼−1.23%×0.23

Jun 24 '25Jun 24 '25confirmed±5.3%▲+6.91%×1.30

Sep 29 '25Sep 29 '25confirmed±6.3%▼−3.98%×0.63

Dec 19 '25Dec 19 '25confirmed±6.5%▲+9.81%×1.51

Q1 FY26Mar 27 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−4.31%×0.73

Q2 FY26Jun 23 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−4.87%×0.82

Q3 FY26Sep 29 '26confirmed±6.0%▲+13.41%×2.23

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.0%▲+13.41%×2.23

Q2 FY26±5.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 4 close

1.44OI · 10 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4 nearer expiries

8,857+42%Nov 61d0.7312,139+28%0.73

3,368+35%Nov 138d0.2712,293+4%0.27

89,699−6%Nov 2015d1.5458,191+2%1.54

2,245+9%Nov 2722d0.842,666+37%0.84

44+33%Dec 429d0.8154+1250%0.81

82+273%Dec 1136d0.27300+117%0.27

report · Dec 18 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

4 nearer expiries

Nov 61d8,857+42%12,139+28%0.73

Nov 138d3,368+35%12,293+4%0.27

Nov 2015d89,699−6%58,191

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.1%

Funds 4

GLO±0.2%

XLY±0.1%

FTC±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

22.80%as filednet margin · revenue +26.59% QoQ · +3.46% YoY

Revenue

$8.4B+26.59% QoQ

Gross profit

$7.8B+28.87% QoQ

92.71% margin

Operating income

$2.2B+160.87% QoQ

26.32% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.9B+249.37% QoQ

Net income

$1.9B+256.77% QoQ

22.80% margin

Cost of revenue

$615M+3.36% QoQ

Operating expenses

$5.6B+7.38% QoQ

Other operating $4.0B

SG&A $834M

Depreciation $754M

Other expense

$281M

Tax

$16M−5.88% QoQ

Revenue$8.4B+26.59%

Gross profit

$7.8B+28.87%

92.71% margin

Operating income

$2.2B+160.87%

26.32% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.9B+249.37%

Net income

$1.9B+256.77%

22.80% margin

Cost of revenue

$615M+3.36%

Operating expenses

$5.6B+7.38%

Other operating $4.0B

SG&A $834M

Depreciation $754M

Other expense

$281M

Tax$16M−5.88%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 31 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.41· ±3.0% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±3.0%5 of 10×1.41

FOMCrate decision±2.0%14 of 24×0.96

NFPjobs report±1.9%4 of 10×0.89

CPIconsumer prices±1.7%3 of 10×0.80

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.7%9 of 19×0.79

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%10 of 19×0.67

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%5 of 12×0.56

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.40 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Sep 29 '26 · confirmed	1.40	—
Q2 FY26	Jun 23 '26 · confirmed	0.39	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 27 '26 · confirmed	0.19	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod