What move does the options market price into Caterpillar's report?

Implied ±15.0%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Caterpillar move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CATNYSEConstruction Machinery & Equip

Caterpillar Inc (CAT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

622.29

pre 629.47 +1.08%

Pre-market09:29 ET

Open637.06Volume5.3MMkt cap$286.3BP/E26.97EPS23.34Div yield1.01%

Day618.33 – 640.0251%52-wk532.55 – 1,068.9318%

CAT

Caterpillar Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.0%implied · straddle

529.38716.12

spot 622.75exp Feb 19ATM strike 620ATM straddle 109.85IV 40%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 28

before open · in 87 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.25%

vs ±5.5% implied · ×1.67

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dTRC · supplierTejon Ranch to release third-quarter 2026 results Nov. 5; conference call 5:00 p.m. ET
4dGTX · supplierGarrett Motion posts net income $97 million, net sales $930 million
25dAPLD · customerApplied Digital Reports Fiscal First Quarter 2027 Results

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.73%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

4,069 managers

Top fund weight

9.22%

CAT weight · DIA

N-PORTJul 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Caterpillar (CAT) is expected to report on Jan 28 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.7%
avg realized: ±5.6%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±3.6%▼−4.64%×1.30

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±4.4%▲+0.61%×0.14

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±3.6%▲+0.12%×0.03

Q3 FY25Oct 29 '25confirmed±4.4%▲+11.63%×2.62

Jan 29 '26Jan 29 '26confirmed±4.9%▲+3.41%×0.70

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±4.6%▲+9.88%×2.13

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±6.3%▲+5.60%×0.88

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±5.5%▼−9.25%×1.67

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±5.5%▼−9.25%×1.67

Q2 FY26±6.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.98OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

4,144+6%Nov 64d0.725,754+18%0.72

2,656−2%Nov 1311d1.072,478+41%1.07

14,195−10%Nov 2018d0.7718,425+1%0.77

1,726+71%Nov 2725d1.271,360+67%1.27

547+10%Dec 432d3.18172+2%3.18

71—Dec 1139d1.2955—1.29

13,7280%Dec 1846d0.8915,411+9%0.89

25,281+10%Jan 1574d0.9227,526+9%0.92

report · Jan 28 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 64d4,144+6%5,754+18%0.72

Nov 1311d2,656−2%2,478+41%1.07

Nov 2018d14,195−10%18,425

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.0%

Funds 4

DIA±1.4%

XLI±1.3%

VTV±0.3%

VIG±0.2%

Suppliers 2

GTX±8.8%×0.59

OTTR±2.9%×0.19

Customers 2

APLD±18.6%×1.24

HP±6.2%×0.41

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

17.49%as filednet margin · revenue +17.96% QoQ · +23.98% YoY

Revenue

$20.5B+17.96% QoQ

Machinery Power Energy $19.6B

Financial Products $962M

Gross profit

$7.8B+27.06% QoQ

37.78% margin

Operating income

$4.3B+39.22% QoQ

20.91% margin

Pre-tax income

$4.6B+41.95% QoQ

Net income

$3.6B+41.01% QoQ

17.49% margin

Cost of revenue

$12.8B+13.05% QoQ

Operating expenses

$3.5B+14.65% QoQ

SG&A $2.0B

Other operating $833M

R&D $616M

Tax

$1.1B+57.46% QoQ

Other income

$263M+108.73% QoQ

Revenue$20.5B+17.96%

Machinery Power Energy $19.6B · Financial Products $962M

Gross profit

$7.8B+27.06%

37.78% margin

Operating income

$4.3B+39.22%

20.91% margin

Pre-tax income

$4.6B+41.95%

Net income

$3.6B+41.01%

17.49% margin

Cost of revenue

$12.8B+13.05%

Operating expenses

$3.5B+14.65%

SG&A $2.0B

Other operating $833M

R&D $616M

Other income$263M+108.73%

Tax$1.1B+57.46%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.65· ±2.5% vs ±1.5% · 20 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.5%11 of 20×1.65

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%10 of 20×1.64

NFPjobs report±2.2%5 of 10×1.50

FOMCrate decision±1.9%16 of 25×1.27

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%7 of 11×1.23

CPROFcorporate profits±1.7%7 of 12×1.14

PPIproducer prices±1.4%3 of 11×0.95

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 7.77 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	7.77	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	5.47	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 29 '25 · confirmed	4.88	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod