What move does the options market price into Ball's report?

Implied ±9.7%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Ball move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

BALLNYSEMetal Cans

Ball Corp (BALL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

67.40

+4.19 · +6.63%

post 67.40 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open63.15Volume4.2MMkt cap$16.7BP/E33.87EPS1.99Div yield1.27%

Day62.80 – 67.4299%52-wk44.21 – 68.1197%

BALL

Ball Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.7%implied · straddle

60.8873.88

spot 67.38exp Feb 19ATM strike 67.5ATM straddle 7.65IV 26%

Nov 4 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 2

before open · in 89 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−7.14%

vs ±6.3% implied · ×1.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

5dNWL · customerNewell Brands posts third-quarter net loss of $81 million, sales $1,873 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.35%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

800 managers

Top fund weight

2.22%

BALL weight · XLB

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Ball (BALL) is expected to report on Feb 2 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.9%
avg realized: ±4.9%

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−6.90%×1.12

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±5.5%▼−0.33%×0.06

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±5.2%▼−5.75%×1.10

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±6.7%▲+1.53%×0.23

Feb 3 '26Feb 3 '26confirmed±5.7%▲+8.96%×1.57

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±5.5%▼−6.27%×1.15

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±5.8%▼−2.15%×0.37

Q3 FY26Nov 3 '26confirmed±6.3%▼−7.14%×1.13

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.3%▼−7.14%×1.13

Q2 FY26±5.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.72OI · 5 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,956+10%Nov 2015d0.732,6700%0.73

1,228+4%Dec 1843d0.631,9500%0.63

7060%Jan 1571d0.213,4430%0.21

report · Feb 2 · before open · est.

187+2%Feb 19106d259+4%

1,6160%Mar 19134d3.484640%3.48

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d1,956+10%2,6700%0.73

Dec 1843d1,228+4%1,9500%0.63

Jan 1571d7060%3,4430%0.21

report · Feb 2 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.7%

Funds 4

XLB±0.2%

RSP±0.0%

REVS±0.0%

SPY±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−2.24%as filednet margin · revenue +4.78% QoQ · +23.94% YoY

Revenue$4.2B+4.78%

Gross profit$709M16.93%+1.72%

Operating income−$77M−1.84%−122.19%

Pre-tax income−$145M−152.16%

Net income−$94M−2.24%−142.15%

Cost of revenue$3.5B+5.42%

Operating expenses$786M+124.57%

Tax−$43M−166.15%

Other expense−$68M+1.45%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.29· ±1.5% vs ±1.2% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.5%6 of 24×1.29

PPIproducer prices±1.2%5 of 10×1.05

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%10 of 19×0.75

NFPjobs report±0.8%6 of 10×0.68

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%10 of 19×0.65

CPIconsumer prices±0.7%5 of 10×0.65

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%6 of 12×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.36 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 3 '26 · confirmed	-0.36	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	0.83	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	0.77	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod