What move does the options market price into Axsome Therapeutics's report?

Implied ±21.6%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Axsome Therapeutics move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AXSMNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

135.90

pre 140.50 +0.64%

Pre-market07:41 ETdelayed

Open139.08Volume1.7MMkt cap$7.3BEPS-3.05

Day139.08 – 140.8083%52-wk123.00 – 260.1913%

AXSM

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±21.6%implied · straddle

109.48169.74

spot 139.61exp Mar 19ATM strike 140ATM straddle 35.45IV 53%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 22

before open · in 110 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.83%

vs ±12.7% implied · ×0.46

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 2 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

16hPFE · supplierPfizer names Cecile Guegan CFO; $1,300,000 base, $1,300,000 target incentive
1dJAZZ · supplierJazz Pharmaceuticals posts net loss of $483.4 million for Q3; nine-month net income $2.5 million
1dAZN · supplierAstraZeneca admits 11,948 ordinary shares to London Main Market

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−2.44%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

508 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

AXSM weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) is expected to report on Feb 22 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.6%
avg realized: ±4.4%

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±7.1%▲+3.81%×0.53

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±7.6%▲+3.42%×0.45

Q3 FY25Nov 3 '25confirmed±7.4%▲+0.56%×0.08

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±3.7%▲+4.39%×1.19

Feb 23 '26Feb 23 '26confirmed±7.1%▼−4.88%×0.68

Q1 FY26May 4 '26confirmed±6.3%▲+8.31%×1.31

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±9.0%▲+3.83%×0.43

Q3 FY26Nov 2 '26confirmed±12.7%▼−5.83%×0.46

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±12.7%▼−5.83%×0.46

Q2 FY26±9.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.40OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

991+18%Nov 2016d0.293,443+81%0.29

2,061−12%Dec 1844d0.862,408+3%0.86

5,455−5%Jan 1572d0.618,895+2%0.61

report · Feb 22 · before open · est.

317−1%Mar 19135d793+26%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d991+18%3,443+81%0.29

Dec 1844d2,061−12%2,408+3%0.86

Jan 1572d5,455−5%8,895+2%0.61

report · Feb 22 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±21.6%

Funds 2

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

JAZZ±5.1%×0.23

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−4.96%as filednet margin · revenue +18.92% QoQ · +51.87% YoY

Revenue$260M+18.92%

Gross profit$242M93.14%+18.10%

Operating income−$11M−4.26%+77.71%

Pre-tax income−$13M+75.01%

Net income−$13M−4.96%+74.91%

Cost of revenue$18M+31.26%

Operating expenses$253M−0.59%

Tax$88,000−31.25%

Other expense−$2M−11.75%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 07:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.05· ±2.0% vs ±1.9% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%9 of 19×1.05

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%4 of 10×1.02

FOMCrate decision±1.9%15 of 24×1.01

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%11 of 19×0.92

PPIproducer prices±1.8%7 of 10×0.92

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%4 of 12×0.64

NFPjobs report±1.0%7 of 10×0.51

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 2 '26 · confirmed	-0.25	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	-0.99	—
Q1 FY26	May 4 '26 · confirmed	-1.26	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 3 '25 · confirmed	-0.94	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod