What move does the options market price into American Express's report?

Implied ±10.0%, either direction · provisional.

How often does American Express move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AXPNYSEFinance Services

American Express Co (AXP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

319.54

Closed18:13 ET

Open324.55Volume2.5MMkt cap$214.0BP/E17.46Div yield1.15%

Day316.90 – 325.9029%52-wk288.37 – 383.1833%

AXP

American Express Co

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.0%implied · straddle

287.07351.15

spot 319.11exp Feb 19ATM strike 320ATM straddle 37.70IV 27%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 29

before open · in 90 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−3.68%

vs ±3.2% implied · ×1.15

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 23 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

13.00%

of AXP revenue · Delta Air Lines (Delta)

customerAXP 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

3,014 managers

Top fund weight

3.81%

AXP weight · DIA

N-PORTJul 31 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

American Express (AXP) is expected to report on Jan 29 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.4%
avg realized: ±3.2%

Jan 24 '25Jan 24 '25confirmed±3.5%▼−1.39%×0.40

Apr 17 '25Apr 17 '25confirmed±4.0%▼−0.64%×0.16

Jul 18 '25Jul 18 '25confirmed±3.4%▼−2.35%×0.69

Oct 17 '25Oct 17 '25confirmed±3.4%▲+7.27%×2.15

Jan 30 '26Jan 30 '26confirmed±4.0%▼−1.77%×0.45

Q1 FY26Apr 23 '26confirmed±3.2%▼−4.31%×1.35

Q2 FY26Jul 24 '26confirmed±3.0%▼−4.30%×1.42

Q3 FY26Oct 23 '26confirmed±3.2%▼−3.68%×1.15

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±3.2%▼−3.68%×1.15

Q2 FY26±3.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.38OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

1,975+14%Nov 66d0.287,021+239%0.28

1,603+2%Nov 1313d1.001,602+20%1.00

13,329−1%Nov 2020d0.4430,134+1%0.44

673+140%Nov 2727d0.67998+64%0.67

279+17%Dec 434d0.59474+256%0.59

3—Dec 1141d1.502—1.50

11,903+5%Dec 1848d0.9312,747+7%0.93

19,6070%Jan 1576d0.2482,2030%0.24

report · Jan 29 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d1,975+14%7,021+239%0.28

Nov 1313d1,603+2%1,602+20%1.00

Nov 2020d13,329−1%30,134

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.0%

Funds 4

DIA±0.4%

XLF±0.2%

JEPI±0.1%

VTV±0.1%

Suppliers 1

GPGI±7.1%×0.71

Customers 3

DAL±9.4%×0.94

EVCM±6.3%×0.63

YOU±5.3%×0.53

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

18.50%as filednet margin · revenue +2.16% QoQ · +8.88% YoY

Revenue$20.1B+2.16%

Pre-tax income$4.5B+11.30%

Net income$3.7B18.50%+19.36%

Tax$819M−14.78%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 18:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.49· ±1.8% vs ±1.2% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.8%5 of 11×1.49

FOMCrate decision±1.6%10 of 25×1.35

NFPjobs report±1.2%2 of 10×0.98

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%11 of 20×0.94

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%12 of 20×0.84

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%5 of 11×0.75

CPROFcorporate profits±0.8%8 of 12×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 5.42 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 23 '26 · confirmed	5.42	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 24 '26 · confirmed	4.53	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 23 '26 · confirmed	4.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod