What move does the options market price into Axon Enterprise's report?

Implied ±10.0%, either direction.

How often does Axon Enterprise move more than the options market prices?

6 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AXONNasdaqOrdnance & Accessories, (No Vehicles/Guided Missiles)

Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

424.12

+7.55 · +1.81%

post 424.90 +0.18%

Closed18:49 ET

Open416.57Volume730,595Mkt cap$34.4BP/E171.33EPS2.48

Day416.57 – 427.0380%52-wk339.01 – 719.9223%

AXON

Axon Enterprise, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.0%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±15.8%·×0.63·cheap

381.88466.48

straddle ±10.6%

spot 424.18exp Nov 6ATM strike 425ATM straddle 53.05IV 212%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−14.28%

vs ±12.6% implied · ×1.13

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+13.34%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,132 managers

Top fund weight

0.78%

AXON weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Axon Enterprise (AXON) reports on Nov 5 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

6 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.9%
avg realized: ±15.8%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±8.2%▲+28.68%×3.50

Feb 25 '25Feb 25 '25confirmed±14.3%▲+15.25%×1.07

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±10.8%▲+14.13%×1.30

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±10.5%▲+16.41%×1.56

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±11.3%▼−9.43%×0.83

Q1 FY26Feb 24 '26confirmed±15.4%▲+17.55%×1.14

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±12.0%▲+10.63%×0.89

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±12.6%▼−14.28%×1.13

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY26±12.6%▼−14.28%×1.13

May '26±12.0%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.91OI · 9 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,794+15%Nov 62d1,963+11%

657+2%Nov 139d1.68390+3%1.68

2,7280%Nov 2016d1.062,5830%1.06

243+14%Nov 2723d1.341810%1.34

2640%Dec 430d13.8919+12%13.89

4 later expiries

1—Dec 1137d1.001—1.00

5,301+2%Dec 1844d0.54

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d1,794+15%1,963+11%0.91

Nov 139d657+2%390+3%1.68

Nov 2016d2,7280%2,5830%1.06

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.6%

Funds 4

XLI±0.1%

FTC±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

QQQ±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

3.25%as filednet margin · revenue +12.02% QoQ · +35.28% YoY

Revenue

$904M+12.02% QoQ

Gross profit

$546M+14.49% QoQ

60.42% margin

Operating income

$47M+59.96% QoQ

5.17% margin

Pre-tax income

$33M−83.68% QoQ

Net income

$29M−82.62% QoQ

3.25% margin

Cost of revenue

$358M+8.45% QoQ

Operating expenses

$500M+11.52% QoQ

SG&A $291M

R&D $209M

Other expense

$14M

Tax

$3M−89.46% QoQ

Revenue$904M+12.02%

Gross profit

$546M+14.49%

60.42% margin

Operating income

$47M+59.96%

5.17% margin

Pre-tax income

$33M−83.68%

Net income

$29M−82.62%

3.25% margin

Cost of revenue

$358M+8.45%

Operating expenses

$500M+11.52%

SG&A $291M

R&D $209M

Other expense

$14M

Tax$3M−89.46%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 18:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.63· ±3.4% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.4%5 of 10×1.63

CPROFcorporate profits±3.3%5 of 12×1.57

PPIproducer prices±2.5%3 of 10×1.22

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%9 of 19×1.16

FOMCrate decision±2.3%15 of 24×1.11

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%9 of 19×0.89

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%4 of 10×0.79

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.36 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.36	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 24 '26 · confirmed	2.05	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	-0.03	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod