What move does the options market price into Applied Digital's report?

Implied ±30.4%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Applied Digital move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

APLDNasdaqServices-Computer Processing & Data Preparation

Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

18.03

Closed19:56 ET

Open18.35Volume26.6MMkt cap$5.2BEPS-1.66

Day17.26 – 18.5162%52-wk17.20 – 50.732%

APLD

Applied Digital Corp.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±30.4%implied · straddle

12.4023.23

spot 17.82exp Jan 15ATM strike 17ATM straddle 6.37IV 100%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 6

after close · in 67 days

est.Q2 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.17%

vs ±9.1% implied · ×0.02

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 7 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

59.00%

of APLD revenue · Undisclosed HPC Hosting customer

customerAPLD 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.78%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

574 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

APLD weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Applied Digital (APLD) is expected to report on Jan 6 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.4%
avg realized: ±12.8%

Jan 14 '25Jan 14 '25confirmed±15.8%▼−1.99%×0.13

Apr 14 '25Apr 14 '25confirmed±14.5%▼−35.94%×2.49

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±10.3%▲+31.01%×3.02

Oct 9 '25Oct 9 '25confirmed±13.0%▲+16.05%×1.23

Q2 FY26Jan 7 '26confirmed±12.5%▲+8.05%×0.64

Q3 FY26Apr 8 '26confirmed±11.2%▼−7.99%×0.72

Q1 FY27Jul 27 '26confirmed±12.9%▲+0.93%×0.07

Oct 7 '26Oct 7 '26confirmed±9.1%▲+0.17%×0.02

quarterimplied−40%0+40%realized×

Oct '26±9.1%▲+0.17%×0.02

Q1 FY27±12.9%▲+0.93%×0.07

Q3 FY26±11.2%▼−7.99%×0.72

Q2 FY26±12.5%▲+8.05%×0.64

Oct '25±13.0%▲+16.05%×1.23

Jul '25±10.3%▲+31.01%×3.02

2 older reports

Apr '25±14.5%▼−35.94%×2.49

Jan '25±15.8%▼−1.99%×0.13

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 26 close

0.49OI · 7 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3 nearer expiries

9,906−2%Nov 66d0.6714,847+6%0.67

4,612+17%Nov 1313d0.4410,471+6%0.44

27,352+4%Nov 2020d0.4560,617+1%0.45

3,183+9%Nov 2727d0.3110,296+2%0.31

7,827+4%Dec 1848d0.918,615+8%0.91

report · Jan 6 · after close · est.

110,9960%Jan 1576d225,1170%

27,8190%Apr 16167d1.1624,068+2%1.16

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

3 nearer expiries

Nov 66d9,906−2%14,847+6%0.67

Nov 1313d4,612+17%10,471+6%0.44

Nov 2020d27,352+4%60,617+1%0.45

Nov 2727d3,183+9%10,296+2%0.31

Dec 1848d7,827+4%8,615+8%0.91

report · Jan 6 · after close · est.

Jan 1576d110,9960%225,1170%0.49

Apr 16167d27,8190%24,068+2%1.16

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±30.4%

Funds 2

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Suppliers 1

CAT±3.7%×0.12

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

−53.84%as filednet margin · revenue +16.34% QoQ · +432.38% YoY

Revenue$342M+16.34%

Gross profit$96M28.13%−23.68%

Operating income−$62M−18.25%+36.05%

Pre-tax income−$166M−185.48%

Net income−$184M−53.84%−123.35%

Cost of revenue$246M+46.37%

Operating expenses$159M−29.08%

Tax$2M+6.80%

Other expense−$104M−363.57%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 31 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.16· ±6.2% vs ±5.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±6.2%5 of 10×1.16

PCEpersonal income & outlays±5.6%7 of 20×1.04

FOMCrate decision±5.1%15 of 25×0.94

GDPgross domestic product±4.9%6 of 20×0.92

PPIproducer prices±4.9%5 of 11×0.91

CPIconsumer prices±4.4%5 of 11×0.82

CPROFcorporate profits±4.3%2 of 12×0.80

Bar = avg |move| to ±7% · tick = ±5.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±5.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.82 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Jul 27 '26 · confirmed	-0.82	—
Q4 FY26	—	-0.41	—
Q3 FY26	Apr 8 '26 · confirmed	-0.36	—
Q2 FY26	Jan 7 '26 · confirmed	-0.07	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod